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AFRM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 587 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock PERSONAL CREDIT INSTITUTIONS (SIC 6141)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 13, 2021 🔗 www.affirm.com
💰 Market Cap: $23.58B 👥 Employees: 2,206
Founded in 2012, Affirm is a market leader in the buy-now, pay-later space with around $36 billion in transaction volume in fiscal 2025. Affirm offers both zero-interest financing, which is merchant subsidized, and interest-bearing loans, which function as personal loans that are approved on a per-transaction basis. Over 70% of Affirm's transaction volume comes from its interest-bearing loans, which also comprise the majority of its revenue. Affirm primarily operates in the United States, which accounted for more than 95% of its revenue in 2025, but the firm has also expanded to Canada and the United Kingdom.
📊
587
Total Alerts
🎯
50.4%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.21%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+4.43%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 47.9%
Avg Gain: +0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.29%
Avg Loser: -1.00%
Best: +9.10%
Worst: -4.16%
Trades: 280/302

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +2.14%
Avg Loser: -1.80%
Best: +15.92%
Worst: -8.28%
Trades: 273/310

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +2.62%
Avg Loser: -2.18%
Best: +13.88%
Worst: -11.65%
Trades: 273/310

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.0%
Avg Gain: +0.08%
Avg Winner: +3.28%
Avg Loser: -2.77%
Best: +22.63%
Worst: -10.59%
Trades: 275/309

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.4%
Avg Gain: +0.21%
Avg Winner: +4.60%
Avg Loser: -4.26%
Best: +27.58%
Worst: -22.28%
Trades: 296/290

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.43%
Best MFE: +36.99%
Avg Time to MFE: 125 min

On average, AFRM alerts reach +4.43% profit potential within 125 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.53%
Worst MAE: -11.60%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.53%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.9:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.9x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 587 alerts, AFRM typically reaches +4.43% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 587
Gap Up % 41.1%
Avg Gap -0.06%
Best Gap +2.32%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PERSONAL CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

How AFRM compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AFRM: +0.10% Sector: +0.12% -0.02%
EOD Gain
AFRM: +0.21% Sector: +0.18% +0.03%
Avg MFE
AFRM: +4.43% Sector: +4.43% +0.00%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AFRM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:27:27 $79.97 -0.94% -1.60% -2.16% -1.25% +0.90% +0.94% -2.39% -0.23% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:29:00 $75.93 +0.76% +0.73% +0.03% -0.40% -0.36% +1.41% -0.57% +0.29% WIN
2025-02-11 09:28:58 $77.44 -1.74% -1.27% -0.56% -0.46% +0.75% +2.07% -2.14% +0.35% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:27:33 $75.32 -2.27% -1.09% +0.24% +4.43% +3.23% +5.78% -3.17% +0.36% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:25:40 $69.29 +3.00% +9.86% +4.75% +7.66% +8.56% +10.95% -1.43% +0.88% WIN
2025-02-06 09:25:34 $63.15 -0.86% -1.00% -0.93% -1.25% -2.22% +0.33% -1.82% -0.05% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:27:19 $57.0 +2.66% +2.30% +3.44% +4.84% +5.05% +7.35% -0.41% +0.18% WIN
2025-01-28 09:29:27 $56.41 -2.16% -3.03% -0.63% -1.03% +2.18% +2.69% -3.16% -0.09% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:28:11 $53.15 -0.48% +0.40% +2.15% +2.92% +3.80% +3.97% -1.92% +0.41% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:29:23 $59.0 -1.47% -1.03% -1.56% -3.49% -5.54% +0.75% -0.10% +0.07% LOSS
2025-01-16 09:29:44 $59.3 +0.71% +0.83% -0.36% -0.01% -2.19% +1.79% -1.03% -0.61% WIN
2025-01-15 09:29:27 $60.44 -1.23% -2.19% -1.84% -0.60% -3.69% +1.37% -0.37% +0.02% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:29:45 $56.69 -1.11% -0.49% -2.15% -0.85% -2.36% +0.69% -0.51% -0.07% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:28:54 $57.42 -1.03% -0.59% -1.87% -3.38% -3.67% +0.80% -1.18% -0.14% LOSS
2025-01-08 09:28:44 $60.6 +2.13% +1.47% -0.26% -1.09% -3.18% +2.39% +0.12% +0.36% WIN
2025-01-02 09:28:53 $62.0 -1.03% -0.13% +2.28% +1.18% +0.82% +3.26% -1.85% +0.37% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:25:27 $62.7 +0.61% +2.04% +1.94% +3.62% +4.69% +6.38% -1.28% -0.53% WIN
2024-12-19 09:29:04 $64.61 +2.74% +2.99% +0.36% -2.57% -2.49% +4.24% +0.11% +0.17% WIN
2024-12-18 09:28:54 $71.5 +1.62% -0.14% -0.52% -1.55% -11.41% +2.13% -0.70% - WIN
2024-12-17 09:25:18 $70.46 -1.53% -5.00% -1.96% -2.28% +0.61% +2.33% -5.38% -0.31% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.4% Baseline on AFRM

The 50.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AFRM's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AFRM Strategy →

Why Analyze AFRM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AFRM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AFRM historically offers an average upside of +4.43% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AFRM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.4%, AFRM shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AFRM performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.21%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.