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AGL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-08-12 → 2024-11-08

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 15, 2021 🔗 www.agilonhealth.com
💰 Market Cap: $410.9M 👥 Employees: 1,076
Agilon Health Inc is transforming healthcare by empowering primary care physicians for the health of the patients. The company enables physicians to create their own Medicare-centric globally capitated line of business. The company derives its revenue from Medical services.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
44.4%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.71%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+3.26%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.71%
Avg Winner: +2.01%
Avg Loser: -2.88%
Best: +2.45%
Worst: -6.47%
Trades: 4/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.83%
Avg Winner: +2.14%
Avg Loser: -3.82%
Best: +5.14%
Worst: -5.68%
Trades: 3/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.54%
Avg Winner: +3.22%
Avg Loser: -5.41%
Best: +5.68%
Worst: -10.24%
Trades: 3/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.62%
Avg Winner: +2.96%
Avg Loser: -5.41%
Best: +4.25%
Worst: -15.28%
Trades: 3/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.40%
Avg Winner: +3.19%
Avg Loser: -3.70%
Best: +6.64%
Worst: -7.94%
Trades: 3/6

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.26%
Best MFE: +9.19%
Avg Time to MFE: 53 min

On average, AGL alerts reach +3.26% profit potential within 53 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.18%
Worst MAE: -7.08%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.18%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.49:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, AGL typically reaches +3.26% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 55.6%
Avg Gap -1.02%
Best Gap +2.43%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-MISC HEALTH & ALLIED SERVICES, NEC

How AGL compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AGL: -0.71% Sector: +0.23% -0.94%
EOD Gain
AGL: -1.40% Sector: +335.81% -337.21%
Avg MFE
AGL: +3.26% Sector: +8.55% -5.29%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AGL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-08 09:28:27 $1.85 +2.16% +5.14% +5.68% +3.24% -0.54% +9.19% -2.70% +0.54% WIN
2024-11-06 09:26:50 $3.03 -2.31% -2.29% -3.80% -2.81% -4.95% +4.29% +0.66% +0.66% LOSS
2024-04-24 09:28:29 $5.35 +1.03% -1.50% -2.15% -2.15% -0.37% +4.11% +1.31% +2.43% WIN
2024-04-16 09:27:07 $4.8 -3.33% -5.52% -7.08% -2.19% -6.67% -0.21% -7.08% -4.17% LOSS
2024-03-28 09:25:39 $5.72 +2.45% +0.52% +0.96% +1.40% +6.64% +7.69% -1.22% +0.17% WIN
2023-11-03 09:28:00 $14.5 -0.69% -4.41% -10.24% -15.28% +1.10% +4.41% -0.69% -0.28% LOSS
2023-06-07 09:27:00 $22.3 -6.47% -5.68% -5.56% -6.73% -7.94% -5.16% -6.59% -6.28% LOSS
2023-05-16 09:29:00 $22.6 +2.39% +0.75% +3.03% +4.25% +1.81% +5.22% -0.35% +0.04% WIN
2022-08-12 09:25:00 $23.8 -1.60% -3.49% -3.66% -3.32% -1.72% -0.25% -2.94% -2.31% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AGL Shows Negative Expectancy

With 44.4% win rate and -0.71% average gain, AGL alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AGL for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AGL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AGL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AGL historically offers an average upside of +3.26% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AGL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 44.4%, AGL shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AGL may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AGL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.71%). This suggests AGL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.