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AGO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 1 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-06-21 → 2024-06-21

⚠️ Small sample size (1 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Assured Guaranty, LTD SURETY INSURANCE (SIC 6351)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 23, 2004 🔗 www.assuredguaranty.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.84B 👥 Employees: 361
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit protection products to the United States and international public finance and structured finance markets and manages assets across collateralized loan obligations as well as opportunity funds and liquid funds that build on its corporate credit, asset-based finance, municipal, and healthcare experience. The company operates in two segments: the Insurance segment and the Asset Management segment. The majority of the revenue earned by the company is from the Insurance segment.
📊
1
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.17%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+0.42%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.08%
Best: -0.08%
Worst: -0.08%
Trades: 0/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.68%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.68%
Best: -0.68%
Worst: -0.68%
Trades: 0/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +0.17%
Avg Winner: +0.17%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +0.17%
Worst: +0.17%
Trades: 1/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.76%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.76%
Best: -1.76%
Worst: -1.76%
Trades: 0/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.42%
Best MFE: +0.42%
Avg Time to MFE: 32 min

On average, AGO alerts reach +0.42% profit potential within 32 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.91%
Worst MAE: -0.91%
Avg Time to MAE: 18 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.91%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.46:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 1 alerts, AGO typically reaches +0.42% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 1
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.24%
Best Gap -0.24%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURETY INSURANCE

How AGO compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AGO: +0.00% Sector: -0.19% +0.19%
EOD Gain
AGO: +0.00% Sector: +2.47% -2.47%
Avg MFE
AGO: +0.00% Sector: +4.23% -4.23%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AGO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-06-21 09:26:52 $78.53 -0.08% -0.68% +0.17% - -1.76% +0.42% -0.91% -0.24% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on AGO

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AGO's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AGO Strategy →

Why Analyze AGO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AGO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AGO historically offers an average upside of +0.42% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AGO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, AGO shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AGO performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.17%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.