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AJG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-08 → 2024-12-10

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 20, 1984 🔗 www.ajg.com
💰 Market Cap: $65.03B 👥 Employees: 56,000
Founded in 1927 as a one-person agency, Gallagher's primary business is insurance brokerage, with a focus on serving middle-market companies. The company's risk management segment provides third-party claims adjustment to companies that choose to self-insure. Gallagher has about 56,000 employees and generates about a third of its revenue internationally, primarily in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.05%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+0.86%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.43%
Avg Winner: +0.07%
Avg Loser: -0.67%
Best: +0.08%
Worst: -1.47%
Trades: 2/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 16.7%
Avg Gain: -0.49%
Avg Winner: +0.45%
Avg Loser: -0.67%
Best: +0.45%
Worst: -1.50%
Trades: 1/5

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.55%
Avg Winner: +0.28%
Avg Loser: -1.39%
Best: +0.43%
Worst: -1.97%
Trades: 3/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.52%
Avg Winner: +0.43%
Avg Loser: -1.00%
Best: +0.53%
Worst: -2.42%
Trades: 2/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.53%
Avg Loser: -1.21%
Best: +1.34%
Worst: -2.27%
Trades: 4/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.86%
Best MFE: +1.76%
Avg Time to MFE: 214 min

On average, AJG alerts reach +0.86% profit potential within 214 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.06%
Worst MAE: -2.86%
Avg Time to MAE: 35 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.06%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.81:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, AJG typically reaches +0.86% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap -0.30%
Best Gap +0.36%

🏭 Sector Comparison: INSURANCE AGENTS, BROKERS & SERVICE

How AJG compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AJG: -0.43% Sector: +0.05% -0.48%
EOD Gain
AJG: -0.05% Sector: +3236.33% -3236.39%
Avg MFE
AJG: +0.86% Sector: +9.09% -8.22%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AJG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-10 09:25:17 $283.42 +0.08% -0.02% +0.20% +0.53% +0.11% +1.76% -0.29% +0.12% WIN
2023-12-28 09:25:00 $223.01 +0.06% +0.45% +0.43% +0.33% +0.20% +0.64% +0.06% +0.36% WIN
2023-03-23 09:29:00 $182.0 -1.12% -1.02% -0.51% -0.24% +1.34% +1.59% -1.12% -0.96% LOSS
2022-04-25 09:25:00 $179.17 -1.47% -1.50% -1.97% -2.42% -0.16% +0.07% -2.86% -0.99% LOSS
2022-02-11 09:25:00 $159.27 -0.02% -0.09% +0.21% -0.05% -2.27% +0.43% -0.46% -0.13% LOSS
2022-02-08 09:25:00 $156.36 -0.10% -0.74% -1.69% -1.30% +0.45% +0.68% -1.72% -0.22% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AJG Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 66.7% win rate, AJG has -0.05% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making AJG profitable.

🔧 Fix AJG Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze AJG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AJG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AJG historically offers an average upside of +0.86% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AJG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, AJG shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.21%) outweigh average wins (+0.53%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AJG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.05%). This suggests AJG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.