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ALTO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-24 → 2023-11-08

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Alto Ingredients, Inc. Common Stock INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS (SIC 2860)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 31, 1994 🔗 www.altoingredients.com
💰 Market Cap: $218.1M 👥 Employees: 393
Alto Ingredients Inc is a producer of specialty alcohols and essential ingredients. The company serves five markets: Health, Home and Beauty, Food and Beverage, Essential Ingredients, and Renewable Fuels. Its customers include food and beverage companies and consumer products manufacturers and distributors. The company operates under four segments: Marketing and distribution, Pekin Campus production, Western production, and Corporate.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-1.16%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+5.12%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.56%
Avg Winner: +1.22%
Avg Loser: -1.99%
Best: +3.13%
Worst: -3.18%
Trades: 4/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: -0.96%
Avg Winner: +2.28%
Avg Loser: -5.00%
Best: +4.46%
Worst: -9.59%
Trades: 5/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -1.16%
Avg Winner: +2.42%
Avg Loser: -8.32%
Best: +4.04%
Worst: -13.14%
Trades: 6/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -1.35%
Avg Winner: +1.68%
Avg Loser: -7.41%
Best: +3.81%
Worst: -11.35%
Trades: 6/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.49%
Avg Winner: +4.36%
Avg Loser: -10.85%
Best: +9.53%
Worst: -15.72%
Trades: 6/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.12%
Best MFE: +9.75%
Avg Time to MFE: 133 min

On average, ALTO alerts reach +5.12% profit potential within 133 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.75%
Worst MAE: -6.99%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.75%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.86:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, ALTO typically reaches +5.12% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 22.2%
Avg Gap -0.77%
Best Gap +1.08%

🏭 Sector Comparison: INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS

How ALTO compares to 16 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ALTO: -0.56% Sector: -0.24% -0.33%
EOD Gain
ALTO: +0.49% Sector: +170.47% -169.98%
Avg MFE
ALTO: +5.12% Sector: +5.49% -0.37%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ALTO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-11-08 09:25:00 $1.92 -1.02% -1.22% +2.60% +0.52% +8.33% +8.85% -5.21% -0.52% LOSS
2023-11-07 09:27:00 $2.29 -1.75% -6.66% -13.14% -9.56% -15.72% +4.80% -6.99% -4.37% LOSS
2023-06-29 09:29:00 $2.8 +0.89% +1.43% +3.21% +2.86% +2.86% +5.00% -0.54% +0.36% WIN
2023-05-10 09:26:00 $1.86 +3.13% +1.07% +0.62% +1.34% +3.23% +4.84% -1.61% +1.08% WIN
2023-05-09 09:27:00 $1.57 +0.64% +4.46% +0.32% +0.32% - +6.37% -1.91% -0.64% WIN
2022-09-12 09:25:00 $4.17 -0.96% -2.52% -1.20% -1.32% +1.44% +2.52% -2.88% - LOSS
2022-04-12 09:25:00 $6.61 +0.23% +3.15% +3.72% +1.21% +0.76% +3.93% -0.91% -0.76% WIN
2022-03-11 09:25:00 $6.52 -3.07% -9.59% -10.61% -11.35% -5.98% - -1.53% -0.17% LOSS
2022-01-24 09:25:00 $4.72 -3.18% +1.27% +4.04% +3.81% +9.53% +9.75% -3.22% -1.91% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ALTO Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 66.7% win rate, ALTO has -1.16% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making ALTO profitable.

🔧 Fix ALTO Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze ALTO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ALTO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ALTO historically offers an average upside of +5.12% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ALTO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, ALTO shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-8.32%) outweigh average wins (+2.42%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ALTO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -1.16%). This suggests ALTO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.