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AMTX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-02-28 → 2024-03-25

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Aemetis, Inc. (DE) Common Stock INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS (SIC 2860)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Mar 26, 1990 🔗 www.aemetis.com
💰 Market Cap: $98.6M 👥 Employees: 223
Aemetis Inc is an renewable fuel and biochemicals company focused on the production of renewable fuels and chemicals through the acquisition, development and commercialization of technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products through the conversion of first-generation ethanol and biodiesel plants into biorefineries. It owns and operates an approximately 65 million gallon per year ethanol production facility located in Keyes, California. In addition to low carbon renewable fuel ethanol, the Keyes Plant produces Wet Distillers Grains, Distillers Corn Oil, and Condensed Distillers Solubles, all of which are sold to local dairies and feedlots as animal feed. It operates in the reportable geographic segments of North America and India.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
83.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+2.11%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+16.35%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 83.3%
Avg Gain: +2.11%
Avg Winner: +3.52%
Avg Loser: -4.95%
Best: +5.64%
Worst: -4.95%
Trades: 5/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +2.04%
Avg Winner: +7.73%
Avg Loser: -9.34%
Best: +14.40%
Worst: -13.74%
Trades: 4/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +4.67%
Avg Winner: +11.12%
Avg Loser: -8.23%
Best: +26.43%
Worst: -15.39%
Trades: 4/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.33%
Avg Winner: +8.78%
Avg Loser: -18.54%
Best: +17.32%
Worst: -35.21%
Trades: 4/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +6.28%
Avg Winner: +16.22%
Avg Loser: -3.66%
Best: +23.04%
Worst: -4.80%
Trades: 3/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +16.35%
Best MFE: +36.77%
Avg Time to MFE: 132 min

On average, AMTX alerts reach +16.35% profit potential within 132 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.83%
Worst MAE: -6.21%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.83%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

5.78:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 5.78x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, AMTX typically reaches +16.35% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 13.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 16.7%
Avg Gap -0.48%
Best Gap +1.60%

🏭 Sector Comparison: INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS

How AMTX compares to 16 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AMTX: +2.11% Sector: -0.24% +2.35%
EOD Gain
AMTX: +6.28% Sector: +170.47% -164.19%
Avg MFE
AMTX: +16.35% Sector: +5.49% +10.85%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AMTX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-25 09:28:37 $5.59 +0.54% +8.20% +7.33% +3.76% -2.33% +15.21% -3.22% -0.36% WIN
2024-03-22 09:28:13 $5.14 +5.64% +14.40% +26.43% +17.32% +8.37% +36.77% -2.31% -0.39% WIN
2024-03-21 09:28:49 $4.35 +5.57% -4.94% +0.92% +3.68% +17.24% +20.23% -6.21% -0.69% WIN
2023-08-03 09:27:00 $6.12 +5.07% +8.06% +9.80% +10.38% +23.04% +25.33% -1.63% -0.82% WIN
2023-05-04 09:27:00 $1.82 -4.95% -13.74% -15.39% -35.21% -3.85% -1.10% -4.95% -2.20% LOSS
2023-02-28 09:26:00 $3.75 +0.80% +0.27% -1.07% -1.87% -4.80% +1.65% +1.33% +1.60% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 83.3% Baseline on AMTX

The 83.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AMTX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AMTX Strategy →

Why Analyze AMTX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AMTX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AMTX historically offers an average upside of +16.35% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AMTX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 83.3%, AMTX shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AMTX performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +2.11%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.