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APO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 17 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-10 → 2025-01-28

⚠️ Small sample size (17 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Apollo Global Management, Inc. INVESTMENT ADVICE (SIC 6282)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 30, 2011 🔗 www.apollo.com
💰 Market Cap: $79.12B 👥 Employees: 6,104
Apollo is one of the world's largest alternative asset managers, with $908.4 billion in total assets under management, or AUM, including $685.0 billion in fee-earning assets, at the end of September 2025. The company has two core operating segments: asset management and retirement services. Apollo operates with scale in each of its major product lines-private equity (with $125.6 billion in total AUM and $71.7 billion in fee-earning AUM), real estate/real assets ($59.6 billion/$27.1 billion), and private credit ($723.2 billion/$586.2 billion). Apollo has a distribution profile that is likely not too far off from the industry averages-with 84% of its assets held by institutional investors and 16% by high-net-worth clients.
📊
17
Total Alerts
🎯
41.2%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.76%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.97%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 35.3%
Avg Gain: -0.38%
Avg Winner: +0.39%
Avg Loser: -0.80%
Best: +0.82%
Worst: -2.05%
Trades: 6/11

15MIN

Win Rate: 35.3%
Avg Gain: -0.50%
Avg Winner: +0.35%
Avg Loser: -0.96%
Best: +0.63%
Worst: -3.20%
Trades: 6/11

30MIN

Win Rate: 29.4%
Avg Gain: -0.75%
Avg Winner: +0.38%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: +0.62%
Worst: -2.87%
Trades: 5/12

60MIN

Win Rate: 41.2%
Avg Gain: -0.76%
Avg Winner: +0.66%
Avg Loser: -1.76%
Best: +1.31%
Worst: -5.08%
Trades: 7/10

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 41.2%
Avg Gain: -0.85%
Avg Winner: +0.91%
Avg Loser: -2.08%
Best: +1.76%
Worst: -9.23%
Trades: 7/10

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.97%
Best MFE: +2.68%
Avg Time to MFE: 168 min

On average, APO alerts reach +0.97% profit potential within 168 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.99%
Worst MAE: -3.24%
Avg Time to MAE: 33 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.99%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.98:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 17 alerts, APO typically reaches +0.97% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 17
Gap Up % 23.5%
Avg Gap -0.33%
Best Gap +0.78%

🏭 Sector Comparison: INVESTMENT ADVICE

How APO compares to 30 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
APO: -0.38% Sector: -0.13% -0.26%
EOD Gain
APO: -0.85% Sector: +3.47% -4.32%
Avg MFE
APO: +0.97% Sector: +1.91% -0.94%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical APO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-28 09:29:03 $168.01 -0.15% -1.00% -1.01% +0.40% +0.77% +1.60% -1.53% +0.15% LOSS
2024-12-10 09:26:07 $173.99 +0.31% +0.37% -0.16% -0.55% +0.41% +1.55% -0.72% -0.47% WIN
2024-12-09 09:26:25 $190.0 -2.05% -3.20% -2.87% -5.08% -9.23% - -0.36% -0.37% LOSS
2024-10-09 09:26:59 $137.0 -0.88% -0.77% -0.67% -1.31% +0.74% +0.78% -1.46% -0.84% LOSS
2024-06-11 09:28:53 $118.5 -0.96% -0.54% -1.22% -0.94% -1.51% +0.01% -1.55% -0.09% LOSS
2024-03-08 09:28:32 $112.2 -1.63% -1.83% -1.87% -2.12% -3.07% -0.97% -1.12% -1.07% LOSS
2023-11-29 09:28:00 $91.0 +0.09% +0.07% +0.62% +1.07% +1.40% +2.68% -0.24% -0.21% WIN
2023-10-05 09:26:00 $87.83 -0.05% -0.07% -0.21% +0.39% +0.85% +1.26% -0.51% -0.38% LOSS
2023-09-22 09:28:00 $90.41 +0.71% +0.63% +0.58% +1.31% +0.44% +1.87% +0.29% +0.70% WIN
2023-09-12 09:27:00 $88.6 -0.18% +0.63% +0.31% +0.33% +1.76% +2.17% -0.47% -0.42% LOSS
2023-08-10 09:28:00 $81.7 +0.82% +0.24% +0.33% -0.04% -0.12% +0.98% -0.04% -0.04% WIN
2023-08-09 09:25:00 $82.48 +0.01% -0.11% -0.34% -0.53% -0.95% +0.15% -0.34% -0.22% WIN
2022-09-21 09:25:00 $53.86 +0.41% -0.56% -0.35% +0.80% -2.23% +1.84% -1.49% +0.78% WIN
2022-06-10 09:25:00 $55.37 -0.70% +0.16% -1.14% -2.35% -1.66% +0.36% -1.61% -1.16% LOSS
2022-01-25 09:25:00 $65.32 -1.16% -0.59% -2.74% -2.46% -1.79% +0.17% -1.87% -1.41% LOSS
2022-01-20 09:25:00 $67.05 -0.22% -0.34% +0.09% +0.34% -0.07% +2.19% -0.60% +0.07% LOSS
2022-01-10 09:25:00 $68.48 -0.84% -1.57% -2.02% -2.26% -0.19% -0.12% -3.24% -0.67% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ APO Shows Negative Expectancy

With 41.2% win rate and -0.76% average gain, APO alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider APO for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze APO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for APO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, APO historically offers an average upside of +0.97% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 APO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 41.2%, APO shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests APO may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: APO shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.76%). This suggests APO is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.