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Latest signal:

AR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 93 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-11 → 2024-10-16

⚠️ Small sample size (93 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS (SIC 1311)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 10, 2013 🔗 www.anteroresources.com
💰 Market Cap: $10.58B 👥 Employees: 616
Antero Resources, based in Denver, explores for and produces natural gas and natural gas liquids in the United States and Canada. At the end of 2024, the company reported proven reserves of 17.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent. Production averaged approximately 3,424 million cubic feet of equivalent a day in 2024 at a ratio of 35% liquids and 65% natural gas.
📊
93
Total Alerts
🎯
62.4%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.59%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+3.09%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 57.0%
Avg Gain: +0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.73%
Avg Loser: -0.79%
Best: +3.93%
Worst: -3.79%
Trades: 53/38

15MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: +0.33%
Avg Winner: +1.70%
Avg Loser: -1.28%
Best: +5.79%
Worst: -3.21%
Trades: 50/42

30MIN

Win Rate: 52.7%
Avg Gain: +0.29%
Avg Winner: +1.82%
Avg Loser: -1.42%
Best: +6.57%
Worst: -6.11%
Trades: 49/44

60MIN

Win Rate: 51.6%
Avg Gain: +0.40%
Avg Winner: +2.23%
Avg Loser: -1.59%
Best: +6.76%
Worst: -5.84%
Trades: 48/44

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 62.4%
Avg Gain: +0.59%
Avg Winner: +2.48%
Avg Loser: -2.70%
Best: +9.15%
Worst: -9.59%
Trades: 58/33

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.09%
Best MFE: +11.65%
Avg Time to MFE: 149 min

On average, AR alerts reach +3.09% profit potential within 149 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.15%
Worst MAE: -6.88%
Avg Time to MAE: 21 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.15%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.67:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.67x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 93 alerts, AR typically reaches +3.09% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 93
Gap Up % 41.9%
Avg Gap -0.08%
Best Gap +1.70%

🏭 Sector Comparison: CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS

How AR compares to 51 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AR: +0.10% Sector: -0.16% +0.26%
EOD Gain
AR: +0.59% Sector: +59.69% -59.11%
Avg MFE
AR: +3.09% Sector: +2.88% +0.20%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-16 09:25:33 $27.52 +0.07% -0.47% -0.51% -0.51% -1.02% +0.47% -0.29% -0.29% WIN
2024-10-15 09:25:43 $27.3 +0.21% +0.62% +0.77% -0.04% +0.18% +1.25% -0.26% - WIN
2024-04-25 09:26:50 $32.5 +0.65% +0.22% -0.03% -0.22% +2.74% +3.42% -2.52% -1.54% WIN
2024-02-21 09:29:32 $24.69 +3.93% +5.79% +4.54% +5.51% +3.81% +7.28% +0.53% +0.65% WIN
2023-10-26 09:25:00 $27.0 +1.11% +2.19% +5.48% +6.76% +9.15% +11.65% -0.93% +1.70% WIN
2023-10-06 09:27:00 $24.56 +1.18% +1.26% +2.24% +2.81% +4.44% +5.82% +0.45% +1.06% WIN
2023-08-23 09:29:00 $26.79 -1.18% -1.19% -0.60% -0.86% -3.47% -0.22% -0.22% -0.60% LOSS
2023-08-14 09:28:00 $27.72 +0.34% -0.25% -0.61% +0.11% +0.29% +0.67% -0.96% - WIN
2023-06-27 09:27:00 $21.72 -1.20% -1.93% -1.61% +0.76% +2.81% +2.95% -2.37% -0.41% LOSS
2023-03-06 09:26:00 $26.6 -0.68% -1.73% -1.17% -1.47% -1.62% +0.11% -1.32% -0.79% LOSS
2023-03-03 09:27:00 $26.5 +0.23% +0.60% +0.91% +1.08% +3.02% +4.11% -0.79% +0.68% WIN
2023-02-23 09:28:00 $25.45 +1.06% +0.93% +0.86% -0.12% +0.04% +1.96% -0.20% +0.71% WIN
2023-02-06 09:27:00 $27.4 +0.36% -0.88% -1.66% -3.07% -3.69% +0.78% -0.07% - WIN
2023-01-06 09:26:00 $28.01 +0.14% +0.87% +0.71% +1.78% +0.68% +2.50% -0.71% -0.39% WIN
2023-01-05 09:26:00 $28.7 +0.92% -0.47% +0.24% -1.53% -3.03% +1.88% -0.35% +0.42% WIN
2023-01-04 09:28:00 $28.14 +1.10% +2.42% +2.06% +2.93% +4.30% +6.22% -0.50% -0.25% WIN
2023-01-03 09:29:00 $29.95 +0.53% +1.40% -0.23% -2.50% -5.11% +1.74% -1.30% - WIN
2022-12-30 09:25:00 $30.64 -0.36% -0.78% -0.26% +0.05% +1.14% +1.24% -1.40% -0.23% LOSS
2022-12-29 09:25:00 $30.45 -0.03% +1.71% +1.87% +1.90% +1.48% +2.73% -0.36% +0.16% LOSS
2022-12-20 09:25:00 $32.35 +0.40% +0.59% +0.93% +1.51% +2.75% +2.94% -0.19% +0.06% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 62.4% Baseline on AR

The 62.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AR's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AR Strategy →

Why Analyze AR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AR historically offers an average upside of +3.09% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 62.4%, AR shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AR performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.59%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.