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ARES Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-09-07 → 2024-10-11

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Ares Management Corporation Class A Common Stock INVESTMENT ADVICE (SIC 6282)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 02, 2014 🔗 www.aresmgmt.com
💰 Market Cap: $34.35B 👥 Employees: 3,891
Ares Management is one of the world's largest alternative-asset managers, with $595.7 billion in total assets under management, or AUM, including $367.6 billion in fee-earning AUM, at the end of September 2025. The company has four main business segments: private credit ($391.5 billion in total AUM and $240.2 billion in fee-earning AUM), private equity, ($25.1 billion/$11.8 billion), real estate/real assets ($132.4 billion/$80.5 billion), and other alternatives ($46.7 billion/$35.1 billion). The firm primarily serves institutional investors (80% of AUM) and high-net-worth individuals (20%). Ares operates through more than 35 offices in over 15 countries around the globe.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.74%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+0.16%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.10%
Avg Winner: +0.55%
Avg Loser: -1.65%
Best: +0.55%
Worst: -3.67%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.24%
Avg Winner: +0.21%
Avg Loser: -1.72%
Best: +0.21%
Worst: -3.82%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.38%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.38%
Best: -0.23%
Worst: -4.06%
Trades: 0/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.31%
Avg Winner: +0.22%
Avg Loser: -1.82%
Best: +0.22%
Worst: -4.50%
Trades: 1/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.74%
Avg Winner: +1.38%
Avg Loser: -2.85%
Best: +1.46%
Worst: -5.48%
Trades: 2/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.16%
Best MFE: +1.74%
Avg Time to MFE: 197 min

On average, ARES alerts reach +0.16% profit potential within 197 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.63%
Worst MAE: -4.03%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.63%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.1:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, ARES typically reaches +0.16% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -1.42%
Best Gap +0.27%

🏭 Sector Comparison: INVESTMENT ADVICE

How ARES compares to 30 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ARES: -1.10% Sector: -0.13% -0.98%
EOD Gain
ARES: -0.74% Sector: +3.47% -4.21%
Avg MFE
ARES: +0.16% Sector: +1.91% -1.75%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ARES alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-11 09:29:18 $159.88 -0.68% -0.60% -0.37% +0.22% +1.29% +1.55% -1.28% -1.28% LOSS
2024-10-10 09:29:04 $158.16 +0.55% +0.21% -0.23% -0.42% -0.22% +0.75% +0.23% +0.27% WIN
2024-03-08 09:26:48 $141.88 -3.67% -3.82% -4.06% -4.50% -5.48% -3.40% -4.03% -3.96% LOSS
2023-09-07 09:29:00 $101.72 -0.61% -0.75% -0.86% -0.53% +1.46% +1.74% -1.44% -0.71% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ARES Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.74% average gain, ARES alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ARES for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ARES with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ARES. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ARES historically offers an average upside of +0.16% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ARES Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, ARES shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ARES may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ARES shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.74%). This suggests ARES is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.