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ARKK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 577 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

ARK Innovation ETF
📍 CBOE BZX 📅 IPO: Mar 31, 2025
📊
577
Total Alerts
🎯
51.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.04%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+2.09%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.6%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.49%
Avg Loser: -0.46%
Best: +2.74%
Worst: -2.18%
Trades: 280/286

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.0%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.92%
Avg Loser: -1.04%
Best: +3.34%
Worst: -4.39%
Trades: 294/282

30MIN

Win Rate: 49.0%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.27%
Avg Loser: -1.24%
Best: +5.12%
Worst: -7.31%
Trades: 282/294

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.9%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.62%
Avg Loser: -1.53%
Best: +8.93%
Worst: -5.32%
Trades: 276/300

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.4%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +2.37%
Avg Loser: -2.25%
Best: +13.90%
Worst: -7.92%
Trades: 279/297

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.09%
Best MFE: +14.48%
Avg Time to MFE: 135 min

On average, ARKK alerts reach +2.09% profit potential within 135 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.80%
Worst MAE: -6.19%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.80%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.6:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.6x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 577 alerts, ARKK typically reaches +2.09% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 577
Gap Up % 41.9%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +1.26%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ARKK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:19 $66.05 +0.45% +0.03% +0.63% +1.39% +1.47% +1.68% -0.30% -0.06% WIN
2025-02-12 09:28:21 $60.36 +0.96% +1.89% +2.35% +2.67% +3.84% +4.30% +0.07% +0.45% WIN
2025-02-06 09:25:41 $63.39 -0.33% -0.50% -0.76% -0.52% -1.06% -0.11% -0.49% -0.46% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:25:02 $60.47 -0.20% +0.51% +0.10% +1.26% +2.17% +2.86% -0.51% -0.38% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:26:35 $59.8 +0.47% +1.10% +2.66% +2.37% +1.50% +2.99% -0.05% +0.20% WIN
2025-01-15 09:29:52 $58.5 -0.46% +0.05% +0.77% +1.60% +0.29% +1.69% -0.72% -0.05% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:29:35 $57.7 -0.47% -0.29% -1.65% -1.01% -0.40% +0.57% -2.44% +0.05% LOSS
2025-01-08 09:28:12 $58.64 +0.46% +0.39% -0.15% -0.34% +0.53% +1.40% -1.62% +0.10% WIN
2025-01-06 09:26:08 $60.71 -0.10% +0.56% +0.94% +1.38% +0.72% +1.85% -0.15% +0.02% LOSS
2025-01-02 09:26:12 $57.0 +0.11% -1.02% +0.60% +0.39% -0.19% +1.11% -1.86% +0.18% WIN
2024-12-30 09:29:47 $58.0 -0.78% -0.95% -1.89% -1.48% -0.67% +0.40% -1.90% +0.02% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:28:24 $57.22 +0.19% +0.89% +0.98% +2.71% +3.81% +4.89% -0.63% -0.26% WIN
2024-12-19 09:25:27 $59.7 +0.15% -0.42% -0.87% -1.78% -2.56% +0.55% -0.23% +0.08% WIN
2024-12-16 09:28:18 $61.71 -0.26% +0.54% +0.78% +0.91% +1.99% +2.32% -0.37% - LOSS
2024-12-09 09:29:57 $63.44 -0.25% -0.58% -0.32% -1.81% -3.36% - -0.46% -0.02% LOSS
2024-12-03 09:29:56 $58.83 +0.03% +0.34% +0.38% +0.44% +0.27% +0.75% -0.63% -0.12% WIN
2024-11-22 09:26:48 $54.81 +0.13% +0.62% +0.29% +0.58% +2.55% +3.12% -0.53% -0.02% WIN
2024-11-19 09:26:32 $54.39 +0.06% +0.44% +0.80% +1.28% +2.81% +2.85% -0.11% +0.22% WIN
2024-11-18 09:26:24 $54.39 -0.49% -0.42% -1.03% +0.22% +1.32% +1.64% -1.29% +0.24% LOSS
2024-11-14 09:29:44 $55.96 -0.11% -1.59% -1.97% -1.93% -3.77% +0.07% -0.55% -0.02% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ARKK Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 51.0% win rate, ARKK has -0.04% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making ARKK profitable.

🔧 Fix ARKK Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze ARKK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ARKK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ARKK historically offers an average upside of +2.09% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ARKK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.0%, ARKK shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.04%) outweigh average wins (+0.92%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ARKK shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.04%). This suggests ARKK is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.