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ARM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 248 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-09-15 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 14, 2023 🔗 www.arm.com
💰 Market Cap: $121.73B 👥 Employees: 8,330
Arm Holdings is the IP owner and developer of the ARM architecture, which is used in 99% of the world's smartphone CPU cores, and it also has high market share in other battery-powered devices like wearables, tablets, or sensors. Arm licenses its architecture for a fee, offering different types of licenses depending on the flexibility the customer needs. Customers like Apple or Qualcomm buy architectural licenses, which allow them to modify the architecture and add or delete instructions to tailor the chips to their specific needs. Other clients directly buy off-the-shelf designs from Arm. Both off-the-shelf and architectural customers pay a royalty fee per chip shipped.
📊
248
Total Alerts
🎯
50.6%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.01%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+2.95%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.9%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.00%
Avg Loser: -0.89%
Best: +11.21%
Worst: -3.30%
Trades: 111/136

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.0%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.55%
Avg Loser: -1.40%
Best: +13.21%
Worst: -5.53%
Trades: 116/131

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.94%
Avg Loser: -1.64%
Best: +23.50%
Worst: -5.25%
Trades: 114/133

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.6%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +2.13%
Avg Loser: -2.18%
Best: +27.87%
Worst: -8.59%
Trades: 125/121

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.0%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +3.24%
Avg Loser: -2.75%
Best: +24.45%
Worst: -12.67%
Trades: 119/127

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.95%
Best MFE: +37.01%
Avg Time to MFE: 106 min

On average, ARM alerts reach +2.95% profit potential within 106 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.01%
Worst MAE: -7.96%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.01%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.91:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.91x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 248 alerts, ARM typically reaches +2.95% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 248
Gap Up % 51.2%
Avg Gap +0.01%
Best Gap +1.23%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ARM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:09 $160.74 -0.72% -1.28% -2.11% -2.10% -0.75% +0.38% -0.61% -0.36% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:28:01 $155.31 +0.05% +1.12% +1.00% +0.39% +0.06% +1.67% -0.84% -0.20% WIN
2025-02-10 09:26:25 $163.47 -1.02% -2.81% -2.29% -1.90% -1.61% -0.04% -0.85% -0.32% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:34 $166.48 +0.95% +0.27% -1.09% -1.30% -2.38% +2.56% -0.32% +0.01% WIN
2025-02-06 09:28:46 $161.82 -1.12% +0.74% +3.03% +2.69% +3.49% +5.33% -1.93% +0.11% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:27:26 $163.31 +1.28% +0.87% +0.80% +2.00% +6.09% +6.54% -0.50% -0.23% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:02 $153.0 +1.20% +1.82% +2.22% +2.90% +1.73% +4.16% -0.65% +0.36% WIN
2025-01-29 09:27:43 $150.87 -0.56% -1.88% -1.57% -1.90% -2.17% +0.58% -0.16% -0.14% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:29:04 $147.99 +0.26% -0.93% +0.18% +0.79% +1.00% +1.70% -0.03% +0.01% WIN
2025-01-27 09:28:00 $148.86 -0.31% -0.85% +1.89% +0.09% -1.95% +2.29% -1.50% +0.03% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:27:55 $166.2 +0.89% -0.10% +0.97% +0.11% -2.21% +1.52% -0.42% +0.18% WIN
2025-01-23 09:25:50 $169.88 -0.14% -3.03% -2.77% -3.59% -1.95% +0.42% -0.28% +0.30% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:26:13 $160.47 +3.14% +9.35% +10.78% +10.21% +12.13% +13.97% -0.37% -0.06% WIN
2025-01-16 09:25:18 $148.6 -0.16% -0.14% -2.31% -1.58% -0.73% +0.95% -0.30% -0.24% LOSS
2025-01-13 09:27:08 $137.46 -0.15% -1.98% -0.02% -1.61% -0.28% +0.41% -2.06% -0.33% LOSS
2025-01-06 09:28:56 $142.97 +2.12% +1.93% +2.22% +3.87% +3.11% +5.01% -0.20% -0.13% WIN
2024-12-23 09:25:13 $129.4 -0.42% -3.20% -3.83% -3.45% -1.96% +0.84% -0.15% +0.38% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:25:03 $130.2 -0.56% +0.19% +0.86% +1.35% +1.50% +4.29% -1.46% -0.41% LOSS
2024-12-17 09:26:27 $143.62 -2.27% -2.51% -3.42% -3.49% -0.57% +0.26% -1.75% -0.01% LOSS
2024-12-16 09:26:54 $152.02 -3.30% -5.53% -4.02% -3.67% -4.62% +0.64% -0.93% +0.64% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.6% Baseline on ARM

The 50.6% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ARM's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ARM Strategy →

Why Analyze ARM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ARM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ARM historically offers an average upside of +2.95% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ARM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.6%, ARM shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ARM performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.01%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.