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ASLE Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-08-17 → 2024-03-08

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

AerSale Corporation Common Stock WHOLESALE-MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES (SIC 5080)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 23, 2020 🔗 www.aersale.com
💰 Market Cap: $353.9M 👥 Employees: 707
AerSale Corp is an integrated, diversified leader in aviation aftermarket products and services. It specializes in the sale, lease, and exchange of used aircraft, engines, and components, in addition to providing a broad range of maintenance, repair, and overhaul, and engineering services for commercial aircraft and components. The company operating segment includes Asset Management Solutions and TechOps. It generates maximum revenue from the Asset Management Solutions segment.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
71.4%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.06%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+4.48%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: +0.72%
Avg Winner: +3.07%
Avg Loser: -1.04%
Best: +6.92%
Worst: -2.13%
Trades: 3/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +1.81%
Avg Winner: +3.98%
Avg Loser: -1.09%
Best: +9.41%
Worst: -1.78%
Trades: 4/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: +0.95%
Avg Winner: +3.45%
Avg Loser: -0.94%
Best: +5.21%
Worst: -1.94%
Trades: 3/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.03%
Avg Loser: -2.78%
Best: +1.52%
Worst: -3.19%
Trades: 5/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -1.08%
Avg Winner: +2.68%
Avg Loser: -3.89%
Best: +5.92%
Worst: -8.23%
Trades: 3/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.48%
Best MFE: +12.17%
Avg Time to MFE: 53 min

On average, ASLE alerts reach +4.48% profit potential within 53 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.75%
Worst MAE: -1.63%
Avg Time to MAE: 0 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.75%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

5.99:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 5.99x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, ASLE typically reaches +4.48% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap +0.26%
Best Gap +1.17%

🏭 Sector Comparison: WHOLESALE-MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES

How ASLE compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ASLE: +0.72% Sector: -0.43% +1.15%
EOD Gain
ASLE: -1.08% Sector: -0.63% -0.45%
Avg MFE
ASLE: +4.48% Sector: +6.65% -2.17%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ASLE alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-08 09:29:57 $7.23 +6.92% +9.41% +5.21% +1.52% -3.67% +12.17% -1.63% +0.97% WIN
2023-12-14 09:28:00 $13.93 -0.93% -1.29% -1.94% -2.37% -2.94% +0.50% -1.22% -1.17% LOSS
2023-12-07 09:26:00 $16.29 -2.13% -1.78% -1.41% -3.19% -8.23% +2.45% +0.06% +1.17% LOSS
2023-06-16 09:29:00 $14.86 +1.21% +0.61% -0.07% +0.67% +0.87% +1.48% -0.13% +0.74% WIN
2023-05-31 09:27:00 $15.13 -0.53% -0.20% -0.33% +0.86% -0.73% +1.45% -0.73% +0.13% LOSS
2022-11-16 09:25:00 $15.3 +1.09% +3.33% +1.76% +1.31% +1.24% +3.92% -0.72% - WIN
2022-08-17 09:25:00 $17.4 -0.57% +2.59% +3.39% +0.79% +5.92% +9.37% -0.86% - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ASLE Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 71.4% win rate, ASLE has -0.06% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making ASLE profitable.

🔧 Fix ASLE Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze ASLE with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ASLE. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ASLE historically offers an average upside of +4.48% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ASLE Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 71.4%, ASLE shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.78%) outweigh average wins (+1.03%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ASLE shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.06%). This suggests ASLE is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.