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AUR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 67 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-04 → 2025-02-14

⚠️ Small sample size (67 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Aurora Innovation, Inc. Class A Common Stock SERVICES-COMPUTER INTEGRATED SYSTEMS DESIGN (SIC 7373)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Nov 04, 2021 🔗 www.aurora.tech
💰 Market Cap: $8.86B 👥 Employees: 1,800
Aurora Innovation Inc delivers self-driving technology safely, quickly, and broadly. The Aurora Driver is a self-driving system designed to operate multiple vehicle types, from freight-hauling trucks to ride-hailing passenger vehicles. It underpins Aurora Horizon and Aurora Connect, its driver-as-a-service products for trucking and ride-hailing. The Company is developing the Aurora Driver, a scalable suite of self-driving hardware, software, and data services designed as a platform to adapt and interoperate among vehicle types and applications.
📊
67
Total Alerts
🎯
49.3%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.18%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+5.85%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.3%
Avg Gain: -0.31%
Avg Winner: +1.90%
Avg Loser: -2.26%
Best: +6.75%
Worst: -5.99%
Trades: 27/32

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.3%
Avg Gain: -0.26%
Avg Winner: +3.04%
Avg Loser: -2.85%
Best: +14.75%
Worst: -11.97%
Trades: 29/37

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.3%
Avg Gain: -0.21%
Avg Winner: +4.30%
Avg Loser: -3.34%
Best: +16.44%
Worst: -13.75%
Trades: 27/39

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.3%
Avg Gain: +0.18%
Avg Winner: +5.07%
Avg Loser: -4.70%
Best: +20.15%
Worst: -15.37%
Trades: 33/33

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 35.8%
Avg Gain: +0.22%
Avg Winner: +8.89%
Avg Loser: -4.62%
Best: +39.56%
Worst: -14.24%
Trades: 24/43

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.85%
Best MFE: +40.59%
Avg Time to MFE: 102 min

On average, AUR alerts reach +5.85% profit potential within 102 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.31%
Worst MAE: -12.90%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.31%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.53:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.53x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 67 alerts, AUR typically reaches +5.85% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 67
Gap Up % 22.4%
Avg Gap -0.48%
Best Gap +2.68%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-COMPUTER INTEGRATED SYSTEMS DESIGN

How AUR compares to 23 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AUR: -0.31% Sector: -0.04% -0.28%
EOD Gain
AUR: +0.22% Sector: +3632.71% -3632.49%
Avg MFE
AUR: +5.85% Sector: +5.44% +0.41%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AUR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:33 $8.96 +6.75% +6.92% +11.10% +16.91% +13.73% +20.20% -0.22% +2.68% WIN
2025-02-13 09:26:38 $6.75 +4.92% +14.75% +16.44% +20.15% +39.56% +40.59% -0.89% +1.19% WIN
2025-02-12 09:26:41 $6.9 -3.12% -3.55% -3.48% -5.29% -6.52% -0.14% -0.14% -0.29% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:25:55 $7.67 +2.35% -1.68% +0.13% -0.72% -8.74% +2.74% -0.65% - WIN
2025-02-10 09:29:25 $7.35 +2.38% +3.74% +2.73% +4.63% +6.12% +7.35% -0.54% -0.54% WIN
2025-02-03 09:27:29 $6.34 +2.27% +2.68% +2.21% +3.55% +7.10% +8.52% +0.08% +1.74% WIN
2025-01-27 09:25:31 $6.52 +1.34% +0.92% +3.83% +4.06% -1.99% +5.06% -0.92% +1.38% WIN
2025-01-21 09:27:07 $7.0 - +1.14% +1.71% +1.57% +3.71% +6.00% -2.29% -0.71% -
2025-01-17 09:27:53 $6.79 +2.34% +1.77% +3.21% +2.21% +0.15% +5.45% -1.25% +0.15% WIN
2025-01-16 09:28:08 $6.77 +1.03% -0.30% +0.07% -0.30% -2.51% +3.10% -1.26% -1.03% WIN
2025-01-15 09:25:21 $6.69 +1.79% +2.09% +3.59% +3.95% -0.15% +4.63% -0.15% - WIN
2025-01-14 09:26:52 $6.64 -1.20% +1.73% -2.12% -2.26% -3.46% +2.11% -1.73% -0.45% LOSS
2025-01-13 09:27:06 $6.82 -0.66% -3.15% -2.71% -4.69% -8.06% +0.18% -1.03% -0.88% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:27:29 $7.8 +1.03% -2.88% -4.91% -6.60% -10.38% +1.73% +0.26% +1.03% WIN
2025-01-08 09:25:54 $8.1 -0.96% -6.32% -6.43% -5.31% -0.56% +0.62% -2.10% -0.96% LOSS
2025-01-07 09:27:48 $9.22 +3.47% +1.84% -5.46% -10.20% -9.00% +6.62% -3.25% -1.84% WIN
2025-01-06 09:25:32 $6.89 -1.60% -1.09% -1.96% -4.86% -5.66% +0.51% -3.34% -0.44% LOSS
2024-12-06 09:28:38 $7.03 +2.92% +6.69% +5.26% +8.89% +11.66% +14.51% -1.71% -0.43% WIN
2024-12-03 09:25:45 $6.02 -1.33% +0.17% -2.53% -1.33% -1.66% +1.00% +1.00% - LOSS
2024-11-25 09:28:21 $6.62 +0.23% -0.53% -0.91% -1.74% -2.57% +1.44% -3.02% -0.60% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 49.3% Baseline on AUR

The 49.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AUR's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AUR Strategy →

Why Analyze AUR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AUR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AUR historically offers an average upside of +5.85% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AUR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.3%, AUR shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AUR performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.18%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.