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AUTL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-10-12 → 2024-11-11

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Autolus Therapeutics plc American Depositary Share BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (SIC 2836)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 22, 2018 🔗 www.autolus.com
💰 Market Cap: $388.6M 👥 Employees: 647
Autolus Therapeutics PLC is a biopharmaceutical company developing next-generation programmed T-cell therapies for the treatment of cancer. The company's clinical-stage pipeline comprises Obe-cel (obecabtagene autoleucel), AUTO1/22, AUTO3, AUTO5, AUTO6, AUTO7 & AUTO8.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.53%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+3.79%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.53%
Avg Winner: +1.13%
Avg Loser: -2.18%
Best: +2.07%
Worst: -3.94%
Trades: 4/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 12.5%
Avg Gain: -1.71%
Avg Winner: +1.78%
Avg Loser: -2.21%
Best: +1.78%
Worst: -5.09%
Trades: 1/7

30MIN

Win Rate: 12.5%
Avg Gain: -2.93%
Avg Winner: +1.32%
Avg Loser: -3.54%
Best: +1.32%
Worst: -7.25%
Trades: 1/7

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -3.88%
Avg Winner: +2.68%
Avg Loser: -6.07%
Best: +3.25%
Worst: -8.78%
Trades: 2/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 12.5%
Avg Gain: -3.93%
Avg Winner: +5.62%
Avg Loser: -6.18%
Best: +5.62%
Worst: -10.69%
Trades: 1/6

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.79%
Best MFE: +11.83%
Avg Time to MFE: 63 min

On average, AUTL alerts reach +3.79% profit potential within 63 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.34%
Worst MAE: -8.62%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.34%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.82:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.82x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, AUTL typically reaches +3.79% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 75.0%
Avg Gap +0.88%
Best Gap +5.03%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How AUTL compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AUTL: -0.53% Sector: -0.41% -0.11%
EOD Gain
AUTL: -3.93% Sector: +1233.50% -1237.43%
Avg MFE
AUTL: +3.79% Sector: +6.69% -2.89%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AUTL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-11 09:28:44 $3.93 -3.94% -5.09% -7.25% -4.09% -10.69% +1.53% +1.53% +0.51% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:28:20 $3.38 +2.07% +1.78% -0.30% +3.25% +5.62% +11.83% -1.18% +5.03% WIN
2024-10-01 09:26:32 $3.6 -1.67% -1.11% -0.97% -0.83% - +1.39% +0.28% +0.28% LOSS
2024-02-08 09:27:56 $6.49 -0.62% -2.47% -3.39% -8.78% -7.55% +0.15% +0.15% +0.15% LOSS
2023-06-02 09:27:00 $3.19 -2.51% -4.55% -2.85% -8.46% -9.09% +2.19% -0.63% +0.94% LOSS
2023-02-09 09:29:00 $2.32 +0.25% -1.72% -4.74% -7.50% -3.02% +3.88% -8.62% +0.43% WIN
2022-12-09 09:25:00 $1.9 +0.26% -0.26% +1.32% +2.11% -2.63% +5.26% -3.16% - WIN
2022-10-12 09:25:00 $3.41 +1.94% -0.29% -5.28% -6.74% -4.11% +4.11% +0.88% -0.29% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AUTL Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.53% average gain, AUTL alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AUTL for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AUTL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AUTL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AUTL historically offers an average upside of +3.79% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AUTL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, AUTL shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AUTL may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AUTL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.53%). This suggests AUTL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.