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AVAH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-30 → 2023-05-30

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Common Stock SERVICES-HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES (SIC 8082)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Apr 29, 2021 🔗 www.aveanna.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.81B 👥 Employees: 33,500
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is a diversified home care platform that provides care to medically complex, high-cost patient populations. It directly addresses the pressing challenges facing the U.S. healthcare system by providing safe, high-quality care in the home. The firm provides its services through three segments: Private Duty Services (PDS); Home Health & Hospice (HHH); and Medical Solutions (MS). Private Duty Services include private duty nursing (PDN) and pediatric therapy services. Revenue is derived from pediatric healthcare services provided to patients including private duty nursing and therapy services, adult home health and hospice services (collectively patient revenue) and from the delivery of enteral nutrition and other products to patients.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.15%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+9.44%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.15%
Avg Winner: +2.83%
Avg Loser: -2.54%
Best: +2.83%
Worst: -2.54%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -3.48%
Avg Winner: +1.22%
Avg Loser: -8.18%
Best: +1.22%
Worst: -8.18%
Trades: 1/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.49%
Avg Winner: +5.19%
Avg Loser: -8.17%
Best: +5.19%
Worst: -8.17%
Trades: 1/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.41%
Avg Winner: +7.08%
Avg Loser: -6.25%
Best: +7.08%
Worst: -6.25%
Trades: 1/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +1.44%
Avg Winner: +12.26%
Avg Loser: -9.38%
Best: +12.26%
Worst: -9.38%
Trades: 1/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +9.44%
Best MFE: +17.92%
Avg Time to MFE: 48 min

On average, AVAH alerts reach +9.44% profit potential within 48 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.91%
Worst MAE: -2.88%
Avg Time to MAE: 0 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.91%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.93:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.93x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, AVAH typically reaches +9.44% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 7.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.36%
Best Gap +0.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES

How AVAH compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AVAH: +0.15% Sector: +0.49% -0.34%
EOD Gain
AVAH: +1.44% Sector: +0.70% +0.74%
Avg MFE
AVAH: +9.44% Sector: +3.81% +5.64%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AVAH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-05-30 09:29:00 $1.06 +2.83% +1.22% +5.19% +7.08% +12.26% +17.92% -0.94% - WIN
2022-03-30 09:25:00 $4.16 -2.54% -8.18% -8.17% -6.25% -9.38% +0.96% -2.88% -0.72% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.0% Baseline on AVAH

The 50.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AVAH's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AVAH Strategy →

Why Analyze AVAH with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AVAH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AVAH historically offers an average upside of +9.44% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AVAH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, AVAH shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AVAH performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.15%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.