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AWR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 1 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-22 → 2022-02-22

⚠️ Small sample size (1 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

American States Water Company WATER SUPPLY (SIC 4941)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.aswater.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.83B 👥 Employees: 846
American States Water Co is water and utilities holding company based in California. The segments of the firm include water, electric and contracted services. Within these segments, American States Water conducts water and electric operations through Golden State Water Company and Bear Valley Electric Service, Inc while contracted services through American States Utility Services and its subsidiaries. Golden State Water conducts its operations across various counties in California and is regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission. American States Utility Services has contracted with the U.S. government to provide water services to various military installations. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from water services from commercial and residential customers.
📊
1
Total Alerts
🎯
0.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.50%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.57%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.50%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.50%
Best: -0.50%
Worst: -0.50%
Trades: 0/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.01%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.01%
Best: -1.01%
Worst: -1.01%
Trades: 0/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.12%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.12%
Best: -0.12%
Worst: -0.12%
Trades: 0/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.27%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.27%
Best: -0.27%
Worst: -0.27%
Trades: 0/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.65%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.65%
Best: -0.65%
Worst: -0.65%
Trades: 0/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.57%
Best MFE: +0.57%
Avg Time to MFE: 126 min

On average, AWR alerts reach +0.57% profit potential within 126 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.64%
Worst MAE: -1.64%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.64%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.35:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 1 alerts, AWR typically reaches +0.57% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 1
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.14%
Best Gap -0.14%

🏭 Sector Comparison: WATER SUPPLY

How AWR compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AWR: -0.50% Sector: +0.23% -0.73%
EOD Gain
AWR: -0.65% Sector: +0.74% -1.40%
Avg MFE
AWR: +0.57% Sector: +1.88% -1.31%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AWR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-02-22 09:25:00 $86.03 -0.50% -1.01% -0.12% -0.27% -0.65% +0.57% -1.64% -0.14% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AWR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 0.0% win rate and -0.50% average gain, AWR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AWR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AWR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AWR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AWR historically offers an average upside of +0.57% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AWR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 0.0%, AWR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AWR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AWR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.50%). This suggests AWR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.