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AXON Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 10 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-12-07 → 2024-04-18

⚠️ Small sample size (10 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 07, 2001 🔗 www.axon.com
💰 Market Cap: $48.71B 👥 Employees: 4,970
Axon Enterprise Inc is building a public safety operating system by integrating a suite of hardware devices and cloud software solutions. The company's suite includes cloud-hosted digital evidence management solutions, productivity and real-time operations software, body cameras, in-car cameras, TASER energy devices, drones and robotic security, and training solutions. The company's operation comprises of two operating segments, Software and Sensors, and TASER. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the Software and Sensors segment, which is engaged in developing, manufacturing, and selling fully integrated hardware and cloud-based software solutions that enable law enforcement to capture, securely store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence.
📊
10
Total Alerts
🎯
70.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.28%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.87%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 70.0%
Avg Gain: +0.28%
Avg Winner: +0.55%
Avg Loser: -0.33%
Best: +0.88%
Worst: -0.50%
Trades: 7/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 70.0%
Avg Gain: +0.40%
Avg Winner: +0.74%
Avg Loser: -0.40%
Best: +1.29%
Worst: -0.80%
Trades: 7/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 70.0%
Avg Gain: +0.48%
Avg Winner: +0.82%
Avg Loser: -0.30%
Best: +2.09%
Worst: -0.39%
Trades: 7/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +0.65%
Avg Winner: +1.28%
Avg Loser: -0.30%
Best: +2.53%
Worst: -0.65%
Trades: 6/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 70.0%
Avg Gain: +0.80%
Avg Winner: +1.52%
Avg Loser: -0.87%
Best: +2.40%
Worst: -1.30%
Trades: 7/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.87%
Best MFE: +3.32%
Avg Time to MFE: 240 min

On average, AXON alerts reach +1.87% profit potential within 240 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.40%
Worst MAE: -1.27%
Avg Time to MAE: 23 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.40%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.63:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.63x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 10 alerts, AXON typically reaches +1.87% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 10
Gap Up % 80.0%
Avg Gap +0.22%
Best Gap +0.69%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ORDNANCE & ACCESSORIES, (NO VEHICLES/GUIDED MISSILES)

How AXON compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AXON: +0.28% Sector: -0.51% +0.79%
EOD Gain
AXON: +0.80% Sector: +1.16% -0.35%
Avg MFE
AXON: +1.87% Sector: +4.40% -2.53%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AXON alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-04-18 09:25:42 $301.5 -0.50% -0.80% -0.36% +0.11% -1.30% +0.67% -1.14% -0.50% LOSS
2024-03-04 09:29:02 $315.17 +0.88% +0.39% +1.39% +1.39% +1.49% +3.32% -0.07% +0.26% WIN
2023-08-08 09:28:00 $178.0 +0.65% -0.16% +0.21% -0.11% -1.28% +1.17% +0.68% +0.69% WIN
2023-07-25 09:28:00 $176.0 +0.66% +1.29% +0.51% +1.48% +2.29% +2.51% +0.05% +0.48% WIN
2023-06-26 09:28:00 $189.28 -0.47% -0.23% -0.15% -0.24% +0.18% +0.46% -1.27% -0.21% LOSS
2023-05-22 09:27:00 $197.03 +0.39% +1.15% +2.09% +2.53% +2.40% +3.13% -0.39% +0.28% WIN
2023-05-09 09:25:00 $221.79 -0.01% +0.57% +0.81% +1.04% +2.29% +2.98% -0.13% +0.13% LOSS
2023-05-04 09:25:00 $218.54 +0.43% +0.46% +0.09% -0.21% +0.26% +1.73% -1.16% +0.44% WIN
2023-04-06 09:26:00 $216.0 +0.08% +0.76% +0.63% +1.11% +1.72% +1.75% -0.14% +0.46% WIN
2022-12-07 09:25:00 $170.2 +0.73% +0.53% -0.39% -0.65% -0.02% +0.96% -0.45% +0.12% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 70.0% Baseline on AXON

The 70.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AXON's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AXON Strategy →

Why Analyze AXON with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AXON. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AXON historically offers an average upside of +1.87% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AXON Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 70.0%, AXON shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AXON performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.28%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.