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BAER Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 11 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-01-25 → 2025-01-15

⚠️ Small sample size (11 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC (SIC 7389)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 25, 2023 🔗 www.bridgeraerospace.com
💰 Market Cap: $148.3M 👥 Employees: 191
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc operates as an aerial firefighting company. It provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services using next-generation technology and environmentally friendly and sustainable firefighting methods. Bridger Aerospace provides aerial firefighting and wildfire management services to federal and state government agencies, including the United States Forest Service, across the nation. The company's portfolio is organized across two offerings: Fire Suppression, which Consists of deploying specialized Viking CL-415EAF (Super Scooper) aircraft to drop large amounts of water quickly and directly on wildfires, and Aerial Surveillance, providing aerial surveillance via manned aircraft for fire suppression aircraft.
📊
11
Total Alerts
🎯
30.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-5.31%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+9.73%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 27.3%
Avg Gain: -2.02%
Avg Winner: +7.72%
Avg Loser: -5.67%
Best: +18.09%
Worst: -15.65%
Trades: 3/8

15MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -5.31%
Avg Winner: +2.29%
Avg Loser: -8.57%
Best: +3.96%
Worst: -19.03%
Trades: 3/7

30MIN

Win Rate: 9.1%
Avg Gain: -7.73%
Avg Winner: +3.79%
Avg Loser: -8.88%
Best: +3.79%
Worst: -17.94%
Trades: 1/10

60MIN

Win Rate: 9.1%
Avg Gain: -11.60%
Avg Winner: +0.32%
Avg Loser: -12.79%
Best: +0.32%
Worst: -27.35%
Trades: 1/10

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 27.3%
Avg Gain: -8.23%
Avg Winner: +6.99%
Avg Loser: -13.93%
Best: +9.02%
Worst: -24.99%
Trades: 3/8

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +9.73%
Best MFE: +34.16%
Avg Time to MFE: 136 min

On average, BAER alerts reach +9.73% profit potential within 136 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -9.57%
Worst MAE: -24.27%
Avg Time to MAE: 24 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 9.57%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.02:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 11 alerts, BAER typically reaches +9.73% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 7.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 11
Gap Up % 36.4%
Avg Gap -0.38%
Best Gap +7.97%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

How BAER compares to 59 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BAER: -4.03% Sector: -0.05% -3.98%
EOD Gain
BAER: -7.56% Sector: +1758.96% -1766.52%
Avg MFE
BAER: +7.29% Sector: +2.89% +4.40%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BAER alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-15 09:28:11 $2.66 -1.88% +2.70% -1.88% -4.51% +9.02% +9.40% -9.77% -0.75% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:26:51 $3.17 +3.47% +3.96% +3.79% +0.32% -14.51% +6.31% -1.89% +0.63% WIN
2025-01-13 09:25:51 $3.59 -2.22% -2.25% -6.13% -8.64% -8.22% +1.11% -17.83% -0.56% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:28:36 $3.71 -4.73% -4.53% -12.94% -11.86% -11.59% +19.54% -20.49% +2.96% LOSS
2024-11-12 09:26:14 $4.18 -2.39% -19.03% -17.94% -19.09% -12.20% +0.48% -6.46% -4.31% LOSS
2023-10-24 09:26:00 $4.95 -5.86% -6.87% -7.07% -6.06% +8.48% +9.09% -9.90% -3.03% LOSS
2023-06-08 09:25:00 $8.65 -1.97% +0.23% -9.19% -6.48% -10.40% +2.89% -4.39% -1.73% LOSS
2023-02-27 09:28:00 $7.77 -10.68% -10.30% -9.86% -14.29% -14.67% +1.67% -1.16% -0.26% LOSS
2023-02-24 09:25:00 $9.28 +18.09% - -2.05% -13.25% -14.87% +34.16% -1.72% +7.97% WIN
2023-01-26 09:26:00 $25.05 +1.61% -5.55% -9.77% -27.35% -24.99% +3.39% -7.39% +0.24% WIN
2023-01-25 09:25:00 $21.34 -15.65% -11.48% -12.00% -16.40% +3.47% +19.03% -24.27% -5.34% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BAER Shows Negative Expectancy

With 30.0% win rate and -5.31% average gain, BAER alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BAER for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BAER with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BAER. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BAER historically offers an average upside of +9.73% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BAER Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 30.0%, BAER shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BAER may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BAER shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -5.31%). This suggests BAER is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.