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BBAI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 273 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-04-06 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE (SIC 7372)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 08, 2021 🔗 www.bigbear.ai
💰 Market Cap: $2.66B 👥 Employees: 630
BigBear.ai Holdings Inc is a technology-led solutions organization, that provides both software and services to its customers. Its AI-powered decision intelligence solutions are leveraged in three markets; supply chains & logistics, autonomous systems, and cybersecurity. It operates in two segments; Cyber & Engineering segment and Analytics segment. Company generate revenue by providing customers with Edge AI-powered decision intelligence solutions and services for data ingestion, data enrichment, data processing, artificial intelligence, machine learning, predictive analytics and predictive visualization. It generate revenue from providing both software and services to customers.
📊
273
Total Alerts
🎯
40.7%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.72%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+6.79%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 35.5%
Avg Gain: -0.66%
Avg Winner: +1.69%
Avg Loser: -2.06%
Best: +8.28%
Worst: -15.68%
Trades: 97/168

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.7%
Avg Gain: -0.72%
Avg Winner: +2.80%
Avg Loser: -3.28%
Best: +10.71%
Worst: -22.22%
Trades: 111/155

30MIN

Win Rate: 39.6%
Avg Gain: -0.71%
Avg Winner: +3.67%
Avg Loser: -3.61%
Best: +17.28%
Worst: -15.69%
Trades: 108/164

60MIN

Win Rate: 37.0%
Avg Gain: -0.79%
Avg Winner: +5.21%
Avg Loser: -4.39%
Best: +19.15%
Worst: -25.83%
Trades: 101/169

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 39.6%
Avg Gain: -0.73%
Avg Winner: +7.32%
Avg Loser: -6.19%
Best: +45.38%
Worst: -29.69%
Trades: 108/160

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.79%
Best MFE: +65.27%
Avg Time to MFE: 99 min

On average, BBAI alerts reach +6.79% profit potential within 99 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.67%
Worst MAE: -20.05%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.67%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.54:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.54x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 273 alerts, BBAI typically reaches +6.79% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 273
Gap Up % 23.8%
Avg Gap -0.33%
Best Gap +3.43%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How BBAI compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BBAI: -0.66% Sector: -0.09% -0.57%
EOD Gain
BBAI: -0.73% Sector: +73.64% -74.37%
Avg MFE
BBAI: +6.79% Sector: +4.32% +2.46%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BBAI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:00 $9.35 +1.76% -3.59% -1.94% +0.40% -3.53% +2.46% -6.42% +0.43% WIN
2025-02-13 09:29:23 $10.26 -3.36% -2.63% -4.00% -5.26% -4.68% +0.97% -0.93% +0.19% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:26:18 $7.86 +1.37% +0.67% +4.77% +10.53% +23.92% +26.34% -3.94% -2.04% WIN
2025-02-11 09:29:18 $8.47 +0.79% +0.29% +8.45% +3.77% -5.55% +11.10% -1.18% - WIN
2025-02-10 09:29:59 $9.42 +0.44% -5.41% -6.36% -10.72% -7.43% +2.97% -5.31% +0.11% WIN
2025-02-07 09:26:56 $6.77 +2.22% +7.68% +13.44% +19.15% +26.88% +37.44% -3.69% - WIN
2025-02-06 09:26:15 $7.46 +3.74% -2.81% -5.63% -3.62% -9.25% +4.83% -1.34% +0.27% WIN
2025-02-05 09:25:39 $5.57 +2.96% +0.87% +1.68% +10.32% +27.65% +35.35% -3.95% -1.26% WIN
2025-02-04 09:28:44 $4.49 +5.35% +2.89% +3.56% +10.47% +9.35% +12.92% -0.67% +0.22% WIN
2025-02-03 09:25:16 $3.88 -1.55% +2.20% +4.12% +5.55% +9.02% +13.40% -2.58% -1.42% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:28:54 $4.23 +1.86% +1.63% +0.85% +4.49% +0.24% +7.09% -1.42% +0.47% WIN
2025-01-30 09:28:30 $3.89 +6.81% +5.88% +6.43% +3.73% +5.91% +10.54% -1.80% -1.03% WIN
2025-01-29 09:28:24 $3.73 -0.80% -0.67% -0.80% -2.14% -2.41% +2.14% -1.74% -0.80% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:29:56 $3.85 -3.60% -5.19% -2.99% +0.26% -3.90% +0.52% -6.49% -0.78% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:25:11 $3.82 -0.79% -1.80% +1.04% +1.44% -3.66% +3.93% -8.38% -1.05% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:29:16 $4.23 +2.58% +1.49% +2.01% +4.08% -2.36% +8.51% -0.24% +0.47% WIN
2025-01-23 09:26:34 $4.33 +0.92% +0.81% -1.62% -3.23% -2.54% +2.54% -1.85% -0.81% WIN
2025-01-22 09:26:38 $4.64 -0.32% -0.86% -0.43% +2.59% -4.31% +3.88% -2.58% -0.86% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:27:42 $4.0 +0.50% +3.25% +3.55% +6.75% +10.25% +12.75% -1.75% -1.50% WIN
2025-01-17 09:25:54 $4.3 -1.03% -1.16% +1.74% -2.21% -8.84% +2.33% -3.95% -0.93% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BBAI Shows Negative Expectancy

With 40.7% win rate and -0.72% average gain, BBAI alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BBAI for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BBAI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BBAI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BBAI historically offers an average upside of +6.79% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BBAI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 40.7%, BBAI shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BBAI may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BBAI shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.72%). This suggests BBAI is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.