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BBVA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 102 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-02-07

🏢 Company Profile

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 14, 1988 🔗 www.bbva.com
💰 Market Cap: $144.07B 👥 Employees: 125,864
Despite its Spanish origins, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria generates only around one-fourth of its profits in Spain. We expect that on a normalized basis, BBVA's market-leading Mexican bank should contribute half of its earnings, while its Turkish operation should account for another 15%. The balance of BBVA's earnings comes from smaller operations in South America. BBVA is overwhelmingly a retail and commercial bank, with corporate and investment banking forming a minor part of the overall business. BBVA also offers insurance and investment products through its banking networks.
📊
102
Total Alerts
🎯
51.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.10%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.90%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 47.1%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.26%
Avg Loser: -0.29%
Best: +0.98%
Worst: -0.93%
Trades: 48/38

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.0%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.33%
Avg Loser: -0.49%
Best: +1.14%
Worst: -2.67%
Trades: 49/47

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.0%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.42%
Avg Loser: -0.58%
Best: +1.55%
Worst: -2.03%
Trades: 49/48

60MIN

Win Rate: 51.0%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.57%
Avg Loser: -0.82%
Best: +2.16%
Worst: -2.71%
Trades: 52/49

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 39.2%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +1.08%
Avg Loser: -1.08%
Best: +4.48%
Worst: -4.43%
Trades: 40/55

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.90%
Best MFE: +4.60%
Avg Time to MFE: 131 min

On average, BBVA alerts reach +0.90% profit potential within 131 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.42%
Worst MAE: -3.77%
Avg Time to MAE: 24 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.42%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.15:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.15x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 102 alerts, BBVA typically reaches +0.90% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 102
Gap Up % 35.3%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +0.92%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BBVA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-07 09:29:23 $12.11 - -0.12% -0.04% -0.21% -0.83% +0.25% +0.08% +0.25% -
2025-02-06 09:29:28 $11.87 +0.25% +0.46% +0.17% +0.63% +1.60% +2.19% +0.08% +0.08% WIN
2025-02-03 09:25:29 $10.86 -0.09% +0.09% -0.46% +2.16% +1.84% +3.27% -0.87% +0.18% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:26:50 $11.81 -0.42% -0.76% -1.19% -1.23% -0.51% +0.34% -1.40% -0.25% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:26:07 $11.44 +0.13% +0.09% +0.04% +0.13% +0.35% +0.39% -0.87% +0.09% WIN
2025-01-23 09:27:21 $10.95 - +0.18% +0.13% +0.46% +1.92% +2.01% -0.05% - -
2024-12-13 09:26:56 $10.19 -0.20% -0.15% -0.29% -0.44% - +0.20% - +0.20% LOSS
2024-12-12 09:26:25 $10.08 -0.10% +0.10% +0.30% -0.15% -0.10% +1.09% -0.74% -0.20% LOSS
2024-11-26 09:25:36 $9.45 -0.16% -0.21% +0.11% -0.53% -0.95% +0.21% -0.37% - LOSS
2024-11-15 09:29:57 $9.85 -0.05% - -0.15% +0.25% -0.30% +0.51% -0.41% -0.20% LOSS
2024-11-12 09:26:29 $9.63 +0.05% +0.16% -0.05% -1.14% -1.97% +0.21% - +0.10% WIN
2024-11-11 09:27:42 $9.77 +0.15% +0.26% +0.05% +0.05% -0.51% +0.41% +0.01% +0.10% WIN
2024-11-08 09:26:45 $9.88 -0.20% -0.66% -1.01% -1.47% -1.11% +0.20% -0.17% - LOSS
2024-11-07 09:25:36 $10.08 +0.30% +0.10% +0.78% +0.57% -0.60% +0.89% -0.30% - WIN
2024-11-06 09:25:14 $9.65 -0.47% -0.01% -0.62% -0.73% - +1.35% -1.14% -0.21% LOSS
2024-09-23 09:25:05 $10.89 -0.09% -0.14% - +0.11% -0.46% +0.28% -0.37% -0.09% LOSS
2024-08-20 09:26:01 $10.33 +0.10% - +0.27% +0.15% +0.58% +0.77% -0.15% +0.10% WIN
2024-08-19 09:28:56 $10.4 +0.38% +0.19% +0.29% +0.43% +0.67% +0.77% - +0.10% WIN
2024-08-13 09:29:57 $9.78 - +0.20% - +0.15% +1.33% +1.48% -0.12% - -
2024-07-31 09:28:51 $10.6 -0.28% -0.47% -0.61% -0.19% -0.57% +0.19% -1.13% -0.38% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BBVA Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 51.0% win rate, BBVA has -0.10% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making BBVA profitable.

🔧 Fix BBVA Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze BBVA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BBVA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BBVA historically offers an average upside of +0.90% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BBVA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.0%, BBVA shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.82%) outweigh average wins (+0.57%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BBVA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.10%). This suggests BBVA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.