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BCDA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 23 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-03 → 2024-10-28

⚠️ Small sample size (23 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 25, 1995 🔗 www.biocardia.com
💰 Market Cap: $14.2M 👥 Employees: 17
BioCardia Inc is a clinical-stage company developing cellular and cell-derived therapeutics for the treatment of cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases with unmet medical needs. Its two cell therapy platforms derived from the bone marrow. CardiAMP autologous mononuclear cell therapy platform is being advanced for two clinical indications: ischemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and refractory angina resulting from chronic myocardial ischemia (CMI). Its immunomodulatory allogeneic mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) therapy platform is being an off the shelf cell therapy for two clinical indications: the treatment of ischemic HFrEF (CardiALLO), which is actively enrolling, and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
📊
23
Total Alerts
🎯
43.5%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.08%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+8.59%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 43.5%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +3.07%
Avg Loser: -2.70%
Best: +7.79%
Worst: -6.20%
Trades: 10/12

15MIN

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -1.72%
Avg Winner: +3.36%
Avg Loser: -4.98%
Best: +7.24%
Worst: -15.89%
Trades: 8/13

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.67%
Avg Winner: +3.67%
Avg Loser: -5.84%
Best: +6.12%
Worst: -19.07%
Trades: 7/14

60MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -5.63%
Avg Winner: +3.90%
Avg Loser: -9.71%
Best: +11.12%
Worst: -23.09%
Trades: 6/14

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 43.5%
Avg Gain: +345.68%
Avg Winner: +806.55%
Avg Loser: -8.84%
Best: +1742.30%
Worst: -21.19%
Trades: 10/13

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.59%
Best MFE: +27.73%
Avg Time to MFE: 70 min

On average, BCDA alerts reach +8.59% profit potential within 70 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.31%
Worst MAE: -13.14%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.31%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.59:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.59x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 23 alerts, BCDA typically reaches +8.59% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 23
Gap Up % 47.8%
Avg Gap +0.46%
Best Gap +6.56%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How BCDA compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BCDA: -0.27% Sector: -0.41% +0.14%
EOD Gain
BCDA: +310.26% Sector: +1233.50% -923.24%
Avg MFE
BCDA: +7.49% Sector: +6.69% +0.80%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BCDA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-28 09:28:24 $2.5 -2.40% -2.00% - - +5.20% +6.80% -3.60% - LOSS
2024-09-20 09:25:30 $2.88 +2.43% -2.78% -1.39% -8.33% -11.81% +2.43% +2.43% +2.43% WIN
2024-09-18 09:28:34 $2.9 -1.72% -2.76% -3.79% -1.38% +6.21% +7.59% -5.17% -0.34% LOSS
2024-09-03 09:26:12 $3.16 - -6.33% -6.80% -10.44% -9.18% +0.63% -3.48% - -
2024-08-30 09:26:19 $3.81 -2.89% -4.20% -9.45% -10.50% -19.95% +7.09% -11.81% +0.52% LOSS
2024-08-29 09:28:02 $4.29 -2.10% -6.06% -13.76% -22.14% -6.29% +8.62% -0.70% +0.23% LOSS
2024-08-21 09:27:07 $3.3 -3.03% -5.15% -1.52% -1.52% -12.12% +1.52% -2.42% +0.91% LOSS
2024-06-07 09:29:23 $4.72 -6.17% -15.89% -19.07% -23.09% -21.19% +6.78% -0.42% -0.21% LOSS
2023-11-29 09:25:00 $0.64 +4.70% +3.92% +3.94% +1.92% +6.27% +11.11% -1.14% +3.83% WIN
2023-11-20 09:26:00 $0.73 +4.10% +4.07% +2.88% +2.75% +1379.45% +5.48% +1.37% +1.37% WIN
2023-11-17 09:27:00 $0.72 +1.00% +3.78% +3.09% +3.62% -0.26% +10.39% -1.60% -0.39% WIN
2023-11-16 09:28:00 $0.88 +0.40% +7.24% +6.12% +2.68% -8.65% +9.53% -4.16% -3.84% WIN
2023-11-15 09:28:00 $1.06 -3.30% -7.55% -4.70% -16.04% -10.85% +3.76% -8.49% - LOSS
2023-11-14 09:25:00 $1.37 -6.20% - -9.18% -13.14% +1071.53% +13.14% -13.14% -5.84% LOSS
2023-10-12 09:26:00 $0.48 -1.78% +4.45% -4.93% -7.23% -10.03% +6.69% - +6.56% LOSS
2023-10-11 09:26:00 $0.41 -1.74% -7.07% -0.05% - +1742.30% +27.73% -7.86% - LOSS
2023-09-11 09:26:00 $0.45 +7.79% - - - -2.15% +13.26% -2.18% +5.48% WIN
2022-12-06 09:25:00 $1.84 -0.53% -0.04% -3.26% -4.35% +1383.70% +8.14% -6.04% -1.63% LOSS
2022-06-15 09:25:00 $1.42 +2.82% +2.11% +0.70% -0.70% -0.70% +7.04% - +2.11% WIN
2022-04-13 09:25:00 $1.76 -0.57% -2.84% -3.40% -5.68% -1.70% +3.21% -2.84% -0.57% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BCDA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 43.5% win rate and -0.08% average gain, BCDA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BCDA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BCDA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BCDA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BCDA historically offers an average upside of +8.59% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BCDA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 43.5%, BCDA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BCDA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BCDA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.08%). This suggests BCDA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.