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BDTX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 20 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-11 → 2025-01-14

⚠️ Small sample size (20 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (SIC 2836)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 30, 2020 🔗 www.blackdiamondtherapeutics.com
💰 Market Cap: $148.7M 👥 Employees: 54
Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage oncology company developing MasterKey therapies that target families of oncogenic mutations in patients with cancer. It is engaged in the discovery and development of small molecule, tumor-agnostic therapies. The company has one pipeline technology platform, namely Mutation-Allostery-Pharmacology, which is targeting mutations in cancer. Its drugs under the pipeline are BDTX-4933 and BDTX-1535.
📊
20
Total Alerts
🎯
30.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-1.25%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+6.13%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -1.25%
Avg Winner: +1.43%
Avg Loser: -2.40%
Best: +3.40%
Worst: -8.66%
Trades: 6/14

15MIN

Win Rate: 15.0%
Avg Gain: -2.96%
Avg Winner: +2.72%
Avg Loser: -4.22%
Best: +4.41%
Worst: -21.20%
Trades: 3/16

30MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -3.58%
Avg Winner: +1.77%
Avg Loser: -4.91%
Best: +3.98%
Worst: -21.15%
Trades: 4/16

60MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -3.93%
Avg Winner: +1.94%
Avg Loser: -6.45%
Best: +6.94%
Worst: -25.97%
Trades: 6/14

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.87%
Avg Winner: +10.61%
Avg Loser: -4.70%
Best: +40.77%
Worst: -20.63%
Trades: 5/15

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.13%
Best MFE: +56.04%
Avg Time to MFE: 99 min

On average, BDTX alerts reach +6.13% profit potential within 99 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.40%
Worst MAE: -28.25%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.40%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.39:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 20 alerts, BDTX typically reaches +6.13% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 20
Gap Up % 20.0%
Avg Gap -0.62%
Best Gap +2.18%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How BDTX compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BDTX: -1.25% Sector: -0.41% -0.83%
EOD Gain
BDTX: -0.87% Sector: +1233.50% -1234.37%
Avg MFE
BDTX: +6.13% Sector: +6.69% -0.56%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BDTX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-14 09:29:44 $2.2 -1.82% -0.45% -2.05% -4.32% +2.27% +3.64% -5.45% - LOSS
2025-01-13 09:27:24 $2.46 +1.61% -3.66% -9.35% -6.70% -6.10% +8.54% -6.91% -2.85% WIN
2024-09-24 09:29:20 $4.5 -0.27% -3.56% -1.56% -3.78% +1.78% +8.89% -5.56% - LOSS
2024-09-23 09:26:40 $5.67 -7.76% -15.87% -9.85% -7.57% -20.63% +0.35% -6.17% -0.53% LOSS
2023-08-15 09:27:00 $3.25 +0.62% +1.85% -1.23% -0.77% -2.46% +2.46% -0.31% +0.31% WIN
2023-07-19 09:29:00 $4.94 -0.20% - +1.21% +1.21% -2.43% +1.62% -1.42% -1.42% LOSS
2023-07-18 09:27:00 $4.91 +1.63% -0.31% +0.41% +0.20% -1.02% +2.14% -0.61% +1.63% WIN
2023-07-14 09:26:00 $5.03 +0.13% -1.19% -2.19% -1.79% -3.58% +0.20% +0.20% -0.60% WIN
2023-07-12 09:25:00 $5.07 -0.39% -0.79% -4.74% -2.76% -2.76% +0.39% -0.99% - LOSS
2023-07-11 09:26:00 $4.78 -0.63% -1.54% -1.68% +0.42% +4.39% +5.02% -2.72% - LOSS
2023-07-10 09:28:00 $4.7 +3.40% -2.13% +1.49% -0.21% -0.85% +5.32% -3.19% -0.43% WIN
2023-07-06 09:29:00 $4.78 -2.48% -4.18% -6.28% -10.64% -6.28% -0.62% -1.26% -0.84% LOSS
2023-07-05 09:26:00 $4.68 -3.60% -0.96% -1.60% +2.35% +3.85% +5.13% -3.63% -1.28% LOSS
2023-07-03 09:26:00 $4.98 -1.61% -5.22% -5.22% -5.45% -5.82% +0.20% -3.21% -2.01% LOSS
2023-06-30 09:25:00 $5.26 -0.19% +1.90% -0.48% +0.48% -3.99% +3.23% -2.09% +1.14% LOSS
2023-06-29 09:29:00 $5.04 +1.19% +4.41% +3.98% +6.94% -0.20% +13.29% -1.19% +2.18% WIN
2023-06-28 09:27:00 $5.97 -3.18% -1.48% -9.71% -11.55% -4.02% +3.18% -5.86% -2.01% LOSS
2023-06-27 09:26:00 $4.39 -8.66% -21.20% -21.15% -25.97% +40.77% +56.04% -28.25% -5.01% LOSS
2022-01-12 09:25:00 $5.01 -0.60% -1.63% -0.20% -3.29% -9.98% +1.79% -2.44% -0.20% LOSS
2022-01-11 09:25:00 $5.12 -2.15% -3.27% -1.37% -5.47% -0.39% +1.76% -7.03% -0.45% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BDTX Shows Negative Expectancy

With 30.0% win rate and -1.25% average gain, BDTX alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BDTX for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BDTX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BDTX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BDTX historically offers an average upside of +6.13% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BDTX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 30.0%, BDTX shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BDTX may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BDTX shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -1.25%). This suggests BDTX is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.