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BGC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-07-28 → 2024-03-08

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 10, 1999 🔗 www.bgcg.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.18B 👥 Employees: 4,011
BGC Group Inc is a brokerage and financial technology company that serves financial markets, energy, and commodities markets. Its service and product offerings include brokerage for a wide range of financial products, including fixed income, equities, commodities, derivatives, and real estate, software solutions for trading platforms, clearing, trade execution, and other back-office services. Its clients mostly include banks, financial institutions, and corporate clients. BGC operates in one reportable segment, which is providing brokerage services. Geographically, the company generates a majority of its revenue from Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), followed by the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.01%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.72%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.97%
Avg Loser: -1.97%
Best: +1.89%
Worst: -1.97%
Trades: 2/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.35%
Avg Winner: +1.43%
Avg Loser: -1.82%
Best: +1.68%
Worst: -1.82%
Trades: 2/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.52%
Avg Winner: +2.00%
Avg Loser: -2.42%
Best: +2.52%
Worst: -2.42%
Trades: 2/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.08%
Avg Winner: +2.32%
Avg Loser: -4.39%
Best: +2.63%
Worst: -4.39%
Trades: 2/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.66%
Avg Winner: +1.29%
Avg Loser: -4.55%
Best: +2.10%
Worst: -4.55%
Trades: 2/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.72%
Best MFE: +4.20%
Avg Time to MFE: 53 min

On average, BGC alerts reach +1.72% profit potential within 53 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.69%
Worst MAE: -2.58%
Avg Time to MAE: 2 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.69%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.5:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.5x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, BGC typically reaches +1.72% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap -0.54%
Best Gap +0.84%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SECURITY & COMMODITY BROKERS, DEALERS, EXCHANGES & SERVICES

How BGC compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BGC: -0.01% Sector: +0.12% -0.12%
EOD Gain
BGC: -0.66% Sector: +56.70% -57.36%
Avg MFE
BGC: +1.72% Sector: +1.84% -0.12%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BGC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-08 09:29:17 $8.46 +0.06% +1.18% +1.48% +2.01% +0.47% +2.48% -0.12% +0.12% WIN
2023-12-14 09:26:00 $6.6 -1.97% -1.82% -2.42% -4.39% -4.55% -1.52% -2.58% -2.58% LOSS
2023-07-28 09:29:00 $4.76 +1.89% +1.68% +2.52% +2.63% +2.10% +4.20% +0.63% +0.84% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BGC Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 66.7% win rate, BGC has -0.01% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making BGC profitable.

🔧 Fix BGC Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze BGC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BGC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BGC historically offers an average upside of +1.72% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BGC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, BGC shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.97%) outweigh average wins (+0.97%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BGC shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.01%). This suggests BGC is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.