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BGS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-11-10 → 2024-07-09

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 23, 2007 🔗 www.bgfoods.com
💰 Market Cap: $352.7M 👥 Employees: 2,443
B&G Foods Inc is an American packaged-food manufacturer. It operate in a single industry segment and manufacture, sell and distribute a diverse portfolio of high-quality shelf-stable and frozen foods across the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. Its products include frozen and canned vegetables, vegetable, canola and other cooking oils, vegetable shortening, cooking sprays, oatmeal and other hot cereals, fruit spreads, canned meats and beans, bagel chips, spices, seasonings, hot sauces, wine vinegar, The company's main brands are Ac'cent, B&G, B&M, Baker's Joy, Bear Creek Country Kitchens, Cary's, Cream of Rice, Cream of Wheat, Devonsheer, Don Pepino, Durkee, Emeril's, Grandma's Molasses, MacDonald's.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
80.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+3.91%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+7.32%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +2.26%
Avg Winner: +4.28%
Avg Loser: -1.53%
Best: +6.38%
Worst: -1.53%
Trades: 3/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +2.68%
Avg Winner: +5.81%
Avg Loser: -2.02%
Best: +11.66%
Worst: -2.76%
Trades: 3/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 80.0%
Avg Gain: +3.91%
Avg Winner: +5.30%
Avg Loser: -1.66%
Best: +10.83%
Worst: -1.66%
Trades: 4/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +3.87%
Avg Winner: +7.53%
Avg Loser: -1.61%
Best: +11.31%
Worst: -2.10%
Trades: 3/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +3.83%
Avg Winner: +7.42%
Avg Loser: -1.55%
Best: +12.98%
Worst: -2.17%
Trades: 3/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.32%
Best MFE: +14.99%
Avg Time to MFE: 76 min

On average, BGS alerts reach +7.32% profit potential within 76 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.62%
Worst MAE: -11.84%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.62%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.8:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.8x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, BGS typically reaches +7.32% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 60.0%
Avg Gap +0.74%
Best Gap +2.35%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FOOD AND KINDRED PRODUCTS

How BGS compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BGS: +2.26% Sector: -0.08% +2.35%
EOD Gain
BGS: +3.83% Sector: -0.37% +4.20%
Avg MFE
BGS: +7.32% Sector: +4.63% +2.69%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BGS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-07-09 09:27:19 $7.85 -1.53% -1.27% -1.66% -2.10% -2.17% -0.64% -1.40% -0.64% LOSS
2024-05-15 09:28:04 $8.95 +5.17% +5.42% +5.36% +3.46% +1.12% +6.48% +0.11% +2.35% WIN
2023-03-01 09:29:00 $14.41 +6.38% +11.66% +10.83% +11.31% +12.98% +14.99% +0.21% +1.18% WIN
2022-12-27 09:25:00 $11.65 - +0.34% +0.26% -1.12% -0.94% +0.77% -0.17% - -
2022-11-10 09:25:00 $13.94 +1.29% -2.76% +4.75% +7.81% +8.18% +14.99% -11.84% +0.79% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 80.0% Baseline on BGS

The 80.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push BGS's performance to 75%+.

Optimize BGS Strategy →

Why Analyze BGS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BGS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BGS historically offers an average upside of +7.32% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BGS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 80.0%, BGS shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show BGS performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +3.91%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.