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BIIB Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 43 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-12 → 2025-02-04

⚠️ Small sample size (43 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 17, 1991 🔗 www.biogen.com
💰 Market Cap: $25.17B 👥 Employees: 7,605
Biogen is an established biopharmaceutical company focused on treatments for neurological diseases and rare diseases. Its declining multiple sclerosis franchise is its largest revenue generator and contributed 45% of total revenue in 2024. Biogen also generates significant revenue from its CD20 collaboration agreements with Roche (18% of total in 2024), which includes oncology drugs Rituxan and Gazyva and multiple sclerosis drug Ocrevus. Biogen's newer franchises include Spinraza (spinal muscular atrophy, with partner Ionis), Leqembi (Alzheimer's disease, collabroation revenue from its partner Eisai), Skyclarys (Friedreich's ataxia, Reata), Zurzuvae (postpartum depression, Sage), and Qalsody (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Ionis).
📊
43
Total Alerts
🎯
53.5%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.25%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+1.24%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 34.9%
Avg Gain: -0.38%
Avg Winner: +0.50%
Avg Loser: -0.84%
Best: +1.50%
Worst: -2.44%
Trades: 15/28

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.2%
Avg Gain: -0.22%
Avg Winner: +0.74%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: +1.88%
Worst: -4.51%
Trades: 22/21

30MIN

Win Rate: 53.5%
Avg Gain: -0.25%
Avg Winner: +0.82%
Avg Loser: -1.48%
Best: +4.78%
Worst: -4.92%
Trades: 23/20

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.5%
Avg Gain: -0.41%
Avg Winner: +0.87%
Avg Loser: -1.53%
Best: +3.47%
Worst: -5.24%
Trades: 20/23

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 32.6%
Avg Gain: -0.49%
Avg Winner: +1.40%
Avg Loser: -1.40%
Best: +7.22%
Worst: -6.30%
Trades: 14/29

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.24%
Best MFE: +8.03%
Avg Time to MFE: 105 min

On average, BIIB alerts reach +1.24% profit potential within 105 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.83%
Worst MAE: -3.04%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.83%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.5:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 43 alerts, BIIB typically reaches +1.24% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 43
Gap Up % 37.2%
Avg Gap -0.12%
Best Gap +1.67%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How BIIB compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BIIB: -0.38% Sector: -0.41% +0.04%
EOD Gain
BIIB: -0.49% Sector: +1233.50% -1233.99%
Avg MFE
BIIB: +1.24% Sector: +6.69% -5.44%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BIIB alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-04 09:29:32 $141.29 +0.16% +0.45% +1.02% +0.50% +0.85% +1.91% -0.16% -0.15% WIN
2024-12-10 09:26:50 $157.09 +0.32% -0.44% -0.71% -0.83% -0.49% +0.64% -1.34% +0.16% WIN
2024-11-22 09:25:49 $157.64 +0.44% +0.67% +0.29% +0.46% +0.16% +1.32% -0.23% +0.29% WIN
2024-10-28 09:28:43 $182.63 +0.06% +0.37% +0.18% +0.63% +1.30% +1.63% -0.49% -0.08% WIN
2024-10-03 09:27:56 $188.04 -1.05% -0.68% -0.74% -1.43% -1.73% +0.05% -0.49% -0.44% LOSS
2024-07-30 09:26:52 $215.2 -0.60% +0.41% +0.75% -0.52% -1.54% +1.30% -1.01% -0.42% LOSS
2024-04-24 09:26:39 $203.0 +0.40% -1.21% +0.95% +0.88% -0.50% +1.35% -2.46% -1.99% WIN
2024-03-08 09:25:56 $226.13 -1.07% +0.13% +0.70% -0.73% -1.28% +0.99% -1.84% -0.30% LOSS
2023-11-08 09:26:00 $247.28 -1.71% -4.51% -4.43% -4.75% -6.30% -0.31% -1.30% -0.64% LOSS
2023-10-16 09:29:00 $262.72 -0.33% +0.14% +0.56% +0.87% +1.99% +2.30% -0.57% -0.26% LOSS
2023-07-28 09:27:00 $263.15 -2.15% -0.76% -0.68% +0.15% +0.79% +1.94% -2.67% +0.06% LOSS
2023-07-20 09:26:00 $277.78 +0.08% +0.04% -0.48% -0.60% -1.11% +0.76% -0.87% +0.08% WIN
2023-07-07 09:28:00 $286.86 -2.44% -2.05% -1.46% -1.83% -4.11% -0.11% -0.81% -0.45% LOSS
2023-06-30 09:27:00 $284.88 -0.24% +0.42% -0.21% -0.26% -0.01% +0.57% -0.49% +0.03% LOSS
2023-06-29 09:27:00 $284.5 -1.33% -1.13% -0.56% +0.02% -0.83% +0.33% -1.33% -0.63% LOSS
2023-06-12 09:25:00 $318.81 -0.74% -1.87% -1.82% -1.30% -1.69% +0.37% -0.25% +0.30% LOSS
2023-05-09 09:25:00 $314.37 -0.86% -0.95% +0.17% -0.18% -0.12% +0.42% -1.04% -0.80% LOSS
2023-05-04 09:29:00 $309.0 +0.89% +0.80% +0.59% +1.05% +1.48% +1.74% +0.19% +0.78% WIN
2023-05-03 09:28:00 $315.5 -1.16% -1.12% +0.10% -0.04% -1.43% +0.38% -0.71% -0.16% LOSS
2023-04-27 09:25:00 $290.0 -0.69% -0.77% -0.97% -1.30% +1.28% +1.41% -1.54% -0.69% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BIIB Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 53.5% win rate, BIIB has -0.25% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making BIIB profitable.

🔧 Fix BIIB Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze BIIB with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BIIB. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BIIB historically offers an average upside of +1.24% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BIIB Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.5%, BIIB shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.48%) outweigh average wins (+0.82%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BIIB shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.25%). This suggests BIIB is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.