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BILI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 602 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Mar 28, 2018 🔗 www.bilibili.com
💰 Market Cap: $13.67B 👥 Employees: 8,088
Bilibili is a Chinese online entertainment platform best known for its YouTube-like video-sharing site. Founded in 2009, it initially focused on long-form content centered around anime, comics, and gaming, catering primarily to Gen Z users. Over time, the platform has broadened its content offerings to include a wider range of interests, successfully attracting a more diverse audience beyond the Gen Z demographic.
📊
602
Total Alerts
🎯
50.5%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.02%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+3.01%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.7%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.02%
Avg Loser: -0.96%
Best: +6.27%
Worst: -4.57%
Trades: 292/290

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.0%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +1.69%
Avg Loser: -1.70%
Best: +7.70%
Worst: -10.03%
Trades: 276/314

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.5%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.92%
Avg Loser: -2.02%
Best: +9.97%
Worst: -9.66%
Trades: 303/293

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +2.55%
Avg Loser: -2.26%
Best: +16.72%
Worst: -13.41%
Trades: 280/310

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.1%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +3.16%
Avg Loser: -2.55%
Best: +17.74%
Worst: -14.52%
Trades: 271/326

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.01%
Best MFE: +25.80%
Avg Time to MFE: 92 min

On average, BILI alerts reach +3.01% profit potential within 92 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.17%
Worst MAE: -12.18%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.17%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.57:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.57x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 602 alerts, BILI typically reaches +3.01% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 602
Gap Up % 40.2%
Avg Gap -0.07%
Best Gap +2.44%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BILI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:29:01 $22.09 +1.72% +0.50% +2.31% -1.68% -0.45% +2.97% -0.43% -0.41% WIN
2025-02-13 09:29:27 $18.85 +0.95% -0.37% +1.01% +1.59% +5.15% +5.89% -1.33% +0.11% WIN
2025-02-12 09:29:07 $17.87 +1.46% +1.46% +1.85% +2.85% +4.81% +5.23% -0.39% -0.22% WIN
2025-02-11 09:25:29 $17.68 -0.85% - -0.91% -0.11% -0.40% +0.57% -1.58% +0.17% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:25:59 $18.85 -0.93% -1.17% -3.29% -2.36% -2.71% +0.21% -0.27% -0.05% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:28:56 $18.87 +1.41% +0.82% +0.64% -0.32% -1.91% +1.85% -0.42% -0.05% WIN
2025-02-06 09:27:57 $18.19 +1.07% +0.22% +0.06% +0.38% -0.71% +1.76% - +0.27% WIN
2025-02-05 09:25:46 $18.05 -0.78% -1.05% -1.33% -1.77% -2.99% +0.33% -0.55% +0.22% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:27:31 $17.68 +1.24% +0.84% +1.02% +1.64% -0.11% +2.49% -0.23% +0.17% WIN
2025-02-03 09:25:52 $16.19 +1.30% +4.63% +4.57% +5.06% +3.27% +6.24% -0.31% -0.22% WIN
2025-01-29 09:28:04 $17.52 +0.06% -0.86% -2.17% -2.57% -4.22% +1.43% +0.17% +0.17% WIN
2025-01-27 09:29:41 $17.23 +0.06% -1.57% -2.64% -2.52% -1.45% +0.35% -0.75% - WIN
2025-01-24 09:25:31 $16.83 -0.83% -1.96% -2.29% -2.64% +0.36% +0.42% -2.85% -0.12% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:28:38 $16.6 -1.08% -1.75% -1.46% -0.90% -1.75% +0.27% -0.66% +0.18% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:26:52 $17.23 +0.52% +2.03% +4.12% +2.67% +1.39% +5.05% -0.52% - WIN
2025-01-16 09:27:52 $17.34 -1.12% -1.24% -1.27% -1.50% -2.08% +0.40% -0.52% -0.17% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:26:50 $16.83 +0.12% -0.42% -0.83% -0.68% -1.07% +1.13% -0.06% +0.48% WIN
2025-01-10 09:27:23 $16.21 -1.47% -1.94% -0.31% -0.65% -1.48% -0.06% -0.06% -0.12% LOSS
2025-01-08 09:27:17 $17.03 - -0.59% -1.12% -0.70% -1.47% +0.59% -0.35% +0.59% -
2025-01-06 09:29:41 $17.36 +0.29% -0.40% +0.17% +0.63% -2.13% +1.67% -0.29% +0.06% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BILI Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 50.5% win rate, BILI has -0.02% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making BILI profitable.

🔧 Fix BILI Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze BILI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BILI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BILI historically offers an average upside of +3.01% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BILI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.5%, BILI shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.02%) outweigh average wins (+1.92%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BILI shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.02%). This suggests BILI is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.