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BILL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 49 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-05 → 2025-02-10

⚠️ Small sample size (49 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 12, 2019 🔗 www.bill.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.85B 👥 Employees: 2,364
BILL Holdings Inc is a provider of software-as-a-service, cloud-based payments and spend and expense management products, which allow users to automate accounts payable and accounts receivable transactions, enable businesses to easily connect with their suppliers or customers to do business, eliminate expense reports, manage cash flows and improve back office efficiency. Initial Public Offering and Follow-on Offering.
📊
49
Total Alerts
🎯
53.1%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.13%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+4.40%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.9%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +1.42%
Avg Loser: -1.26%
Best: +7.09%
Worst: -4.15%
Trades: 23/26

15MIN

Win Rate: 53.1%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +1.79%
Avg Loser: -2.29%
Best: +9.34%
Worst: -9.91%
Trades: 26/23

30MIN

Win Rate: 44.9%
Avg Gain: +0.17%
Avg Winner: +2.75%
Avg Loser: -1.93%
Best: +15.09%
Worst: -9.88%
Trades: 22/27

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.0%
Avg Gain: +0.33%
Avg Winner: +2.79%
Avg Loser: -2.04%
Best: +18.07%
Worst: -5.74%
Trades: 24/25

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 53.1%
Avg Gain: +0.69%
Avg Winner: +4.18%
Avg Loser: -3.26%
Best: +19.45%
Worst: -9.09%
Trades: 26/23

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.40%
Best MFE: +20.46%
Avg Time to MFE: 160 min

On average, BILL alerts reach +4.40% profit potential within 160 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.18%
Worst MAE: -13.42%
Avg Time to MAE: 19 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.18%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.02:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.02x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 49 alerts, BILL typically reaches +4.40% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 49
Gap Up % 36.7%
Avg Gap -0.23%
Best Gap +2.66%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How BILL compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BILL: +0.00% Sector: -0.09% +0.09%
EOD Gain
BILL: +0.69% Sector: +73.64% -72.95%
Avg MFE
BILL: +4.40% Sector: +4.32% +0.08%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BILL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-10 09:27:41 $62.83 +1.61% +0.03% +0.29% +1.32% +3.41% +4.70% -1.00% +0.35% WIN
2025-02-07 09:28:26 $64.5 +0.81% -2.71% -1.54% +0.91% -3.67% +4.71% -3.29% +0.59% WIN
2024-12-04 09:27:12 $88.3 +0.69% -0.23% +2.11% +1.90% +4.82% +4.88% -0.46% +0.06% WIN
2024-11-19 09:27:44 $83.73 -0.06% +0.83% +1.14% +1.19% +2.82% +2.88% -0.75% -0.61% LOSS
2024-04-01 09:25:54 $66.6 -1.24% +0.09% -0.80% -2.27% -3.15% +0.59% -1.47% -0.14% LOSS
2024-02-13 09:26:07 $63.5 +0.19% +1.62% +2.84% +2.11% -1.15% +3.01% -1.43% +0.05% WIN
2024-02-12 09:25:17 $65.56 +0.05% -0.64% +0.25% +0.36% +0.64% +1.87% -1.62% +0.17% WIN
2024-02-09 09:29:15 $71.11 +0.86% -0.44% -1.41% -4.69% -7.95% +1.65% -3.25% -0.65% WIN
2023-12-04 09:28:00 $67.73 -0.34% +1.26% -0.28% -0.18% +1.17% +3.51% -0.59% -0.25% LOSS
2023-11-21 09:27:00 $63.95 -0.16% +0.16% -0.43% -1.13% -1.72% +1.78% -0.63% -0.11% LOSS
2023-11-09 09:25:00 $54.41 -0.30% -3.00% -3.69% -1.87% +2.96% +8.69% -4.54% -0.17% LOSS
2023-11-08 09:29:00 $63.5 -0.35% -0.69% -0.68% -1.24% -2.06% +0.36% -1.84% -0.66% LOSS
2023-11-07 09:29:00 $62.27 +0.27% +1.38% +0.03% +0.33% +1.49% +2.30% -0.84% +0.95% WIN
2023-11-06 09:25:00 $67.58 +0.62% +2.42% -1.63% -3.70% -9.09% +5.36% -0.70% -0.70% WIN
2023-11-03 09:28:00 $63.98 -2.72% -7.24% -6.83% -4.20% +4.61% +5.49% -9.11% +0.11% LOSS
2023-08-18 09:28:00 $92.9 +7.09% +9.34% +15.09% +18.07% +19.45% +20.46% +0.22% +1.78% WIN
2023-05-05 09:27:00 $93.74 +6.21% +1.48% -0.31% -0.29% +0.32% +6.56% +0.15% +1.16% WIN
2023-05-03 09:29:00 $76.23 +0.42% +4.07% +1.59% +1.88% +3.15% +6.63% -0.96% -0.12% WIN
2023-04-28 09:28:00 $78.0 -2.27% -3.06% -1.03% +0.11% -1.53% +0.90% -3.27% -1.28% LOSS
2023-04-11 09:27:00 $74.83 -0.04% -0.49% +0.48% +0.33% +3.17% +3.61% -2.16% -0.44% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BILL Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 53.1% win rate, BILL has -0.13% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making BILL profitable.

🔧 Fix BILL Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze BILL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BILL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BILL historically offers an average upside of +4.40% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BILL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.1%, BILL shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.29%) outweigh average wins (+1.79%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BILL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.13%). This suggests BILL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.