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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$BIRK

Trade-Ideas alert history 6 alerts 2023-10-122024-12-18

⚠ SMALL SAMPLE · 6 alerts only. Statistics may have high variance — interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Birkenstock Holding plc
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 11, 2023 🔗 www.birkenstock-holding.com
💰 Market Cap: $7.20B 👥 Employees: 8,000
Birkenstock is a German footwear brand known for comfort-focused, timeless designs, with 76% of 2022 sales coming from its top five iconic models. Products are made in Europe using sustainable, mostly locally sourced materials. The brand combines orthopedic function with everyday style, appealing to a broad audience. The Americas account for 52% of sales, EMEA 37%, with the remainder coming from Asia-Pacific, which has also the higher future growth expectations.
Total alerts
6
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 5MIN
33.3%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 5MIN
-0.65%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+1.37%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading BIRK on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.65%
Avg Winner: +0.24%
Avg Loser: -1.45%
Best: +0.45%
Worst: -3.96%
Trades: 2/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.89%
Avg Winner: +0.45%
Avg Loser: -1.56%
Best: +0.76%
Worst: -3.32%
Trades: 2/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 16.7%
Avg Gain: -1.79%
Avg Winner: +0.26%
Avg Loser: -2.20%
Best: +0.26%
Worst: -4.29%
Trades: 1/5

60MIN

Win Rate: 16.7%
Avg Gain: -2.39%
Avg Winner: +0.73%
Avg Loser: -3.01%
Best: +0.73%
Worst: -4.87%
Trades: 1/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 16.7%
Avg Gain: -3.63%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -4.47%
Best: +0.56%
Worst: -6.57%
Trades: 1/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.37%
Best MFE: +3.83%
Avg Time to MFE: 10 min

On average, BIRK alerts reach +1.37% profit potential within 10 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.04%
Worst MAE: -2.78%
Avg Time to MAE: 1 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.04%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.32:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, BIRK typically reaches +1.37% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap +0.20%
Best Gap +3.01%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BIRK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-18 09:28:23 $61.13 +0.03% -1.89% -1.73% -2.58% -6.49% +2.16% -1.68% -0.31% WIN
2024-10-01 09:26:09 $49.29 +0.45% -0.69% -1.79% -2.56% -2.68% +0.77% -0.04% -0.04% WIN
2024-08-29 09:28:21 $52.5 -0.08% +0.76% -0.30% -1.71% -3.05% +3.83% -0.76% +3.01% LOSS
2024-06-27 09:29:59 $54.0 +0.00% +0.15% +0.26% +0.73% +0.56% +1.63% -0.56% +0.00% LOSS
2024-05-30 09:28:48 $57.87 -3.96% -3.32% -4.29% -4.87% -3.54% -0.38% -2.78% -1.50% LOSS
2023-10-12 09:28:00 $40.19 -0.31% -0.34% -2.91% -3.33% -6.57% +0.22% -0.40% +0.05% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠ BIRK Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -0.65% average gain, BIRK alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BIRK for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BIRK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BIRK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BIRK historically offers an average upside of +1.37% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BIRK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, BIRK shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BIRK may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BIRK shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.65%). This suggests BIRK is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.