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BL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-11-08 → 2024-11-20

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

BlackLine, Inc. Common Stock SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE (SIC 7372)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 28, 2016 🔗 www.blackline.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.16B 👥 Employees: 1,830
BlackLine Inc is engaged in providing financial accounting close solutions delivered as Software as a Service (SaaS). The Company's solutions enable its customers to address various aspects of their critical processes, including financial close & consolidation, intercompany accounting, and invoice-to-cash. The majority of the revenue of the company is earned in the United States.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
60.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.02%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.48%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.21%
Avg Loser: -0.28%
Best: +0.24%
Worst: -0.53%
Trades: 2/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.46%
Avg Winner: +0.43%
Avg Loser: -1.05%
Best: +0.52%
Worst: -2.28%
Trades: 2/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.40%
Avg Winner: +0.59%
Avg Loser: -1.06%
Best: +0.71%
Worst: -2.28%
Trades: 2/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.05%
Avg Winner: +0.46%
Avg Loser: -2.57%
Best: +0.58%
Worst: -3.57%
Trades: 2/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.52%
Avg Loser: -2.32%
Best: +2.11%
Worst: -3.91%
Trades: 3/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.48%
Best MFE: +2.60%
Avg Time to MFE: 139 min

On average, BL alerts reach +1.48% profit potential within 139 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.86%
Worst MAE: -1.87%
Avg Time to MAE: 36 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.86%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.73:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, BL typically reaches +1.48% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 80.0%
Avg Gap +0.38%
Best Gap +0.71%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How BL compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BL: -0.04% Sector: -0.09% +0.05%
EOD Gain
BL: -0.27% Sector: +73.64% -73.91%
Avg MFE
BL: +1.41% Sector: +4.32% -2.91%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-20 09:28:28 $57.7 +0.17% -0.33% -0.84% -1.57% +1.44% +1.47% -0.30% +0.61% WIN
2024-09-18 09:27:33 $50.79 - -0.53% -0.07% - +1.00% +1.75% -0.53% -0.02% -
2024-05-22 09:26:11 $52.4 -0.53% +0.52% +0.71% +0.34% -0.73% +0.86% -0.95% +0.10% LOSS
2023-06-13 09:27:00 $53.0 -0.03% +0.34% +0.48% +0.58% +2.11% +2.60% -1.87% +0.53% LOSS
2022-11-08 09:25:00 $57.49 +0.24% -2.28% -2.28% -3.57% -3.91% +0.71% -0.63% +0.71% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BL Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 60.0% win rate, BL has -0.02% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making BL profitable.

🔧 Fix BL Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze BL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BL historically offers an average upside of +1.48% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 60.0%, BL shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.32%) outweigh average wins (+1.52%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.02%). This suggests BL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.