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BLDR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-05 → 2023-11-08

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 22, 2005 🔗 www.bldr.com
💰 Market Cap: $13.53B 👥 Employees: 29,000
Builders FirstSource Inc is a manufacturer and supplier of building materials. The company offers structural and related building products such as factory-built roof and floor trusses, wall panels and stairs, vinyl windows, custom millwork and trim, and engineered wood. The products can be designed for each home individually and are installed by Builders FirstSource. The company's construction-related services include professional installation, turn-key framing, and shell construction. Builders FirstSource's customers range from large production builders to small custom homebuilders.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.35%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.11%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.74%
Avg Winner: +0.55%
Avg Loser: -1.16%
Best: +0.71%
Worst: -2.50%
Trades: 2/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.58%
Avg Winner: +0.72%
Avg Loser: -1.36%
Best: +1.46%
Worst: -2.66%
Trades: 3/5

30MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.28%
Avg Winner: +0.96%
Avg Loser: -1.01%
Best: +2.15%
Worst: -2.24%
Trades: 3/5

60MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.41%
Avg Winner: +0.63%
Avg Loser: -1.03%
Best: +1.59%
Worst: -1.78%
Trades: 3/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.35%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -1.56%
Best: +1.22%
Worst: -3.07%
Trades: 4/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.11%
Best MFE: +2.73%
Avg Time to MFE: 150 min

On average, BLDR alerts reach +1.11% profit potential within 150 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.49%
Worst MAE: -4.19%
Avg Time to MAE: 25 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.49%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.75:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, BLDR typically reaches +1.11% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 12.5%
Avg Gap -0.76%
Best Gap +0.56%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-LUMBER & OTHER BUILDING MATERIALS DEALERS

How BLDR compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BLDR: -0.74% Sector: +0.02% -0.76%
EOD Gain
BLDR: -0.35% Sector: -0.16% -0.19%
Avg MFE
BLDR: +1.11% Sector: +1.30% -0.19%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BLDR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-11-08 09:28:00 $124.79 +0.39% +1.46% +2.15% +1.59% -0.10% +2.45% -0.16% +0.56% WIN
2023-11-06 09:25:00 $127.0 -0.69% -1.08% -1.13% -0.63% -1.11% +0.04% -1.02% -0.65% LOSS
2023-08-07 09:26:00 $151.87 -1.19% -0.36% -0.24% +0.11% +0.23% +0.74% -1.29% -0.97% LOSS
2023-06-16 09:26:00 $123.83 -1.34% -2.66% -2.24% -1.78% -1.95% -0.36% -1.06% -0.46% LOSS
2023-06-12 09:25:00 $122.75 -0.69% -0.72% -0.98% -1.02% +0.80% +1.23% -1.97% -0.27% LOSS
2023-06-02 09:26:00 $117.54 +0.71% +0.49% -0.48% -0.66% +1.22% +1.32% -1.08% -0.74% WIN
2022-08-01 09:25:00 $72.5 -2.50% -1.97% +0.66% +0.19% +1.16% +2.73% -4.19% -2.46% LOSS
2022-05-05 09:25:00 $68.0 -0.57% +0.22% +0.06% -1.03% -3.07% +0.74% -1.13% -1.09% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BLDR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.35% average gain, BLDR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BLDR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BLDR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BLDR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BLDR historically offers an average upside of +1.11% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BLDR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, BLDR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BLDR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BLDR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.35%). This suggests BLDR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.