FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

BOW Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-07-11 → 2024-10-24

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE (SIC 6331)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 23, 2024 🔗 www.bowheadspecialty.com
💰 Market Cap: $828.8M 👥 Employees: 249
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc offers commercial specialty property and casualty insurance products. The company offers underwriting solutions to various businesses across four underwriting divisions, which include Casualty, Professional Liability, Healthcare Liability, and Baleen Specialty. A majority of its revenue is generated from the Casualty division which specializes in general liability coverage, which protects a company against liability arising from bodily injury, personal injury or property damage, for risks in the construction, distribution, heavy manufacturing, real estate, public entity and hospitality segments and also considers underwriting risks in a broader range of industries. Geographically, the company operates in the United States.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.05%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+2.33%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.39%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.39%
Best: -0.31%
Worst: -0.46%
Trades: 0/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.87%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.87%
Best: -0.87%
Worst: -0.87%
Trades: 0/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.86%
Avg Loser: -0.96%
Best: +0.86%
Worst: -0.96%
Trades: 1/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.91%
Avg Winner: +0.14%
Avg Loser: -1.95%
Best: +0.14%
Worst: -1.95%
Trades: 1/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.37%
Avg Winner: +3.35%
Avg Loser: -2.61%
Best: +3.35%
Worst: -2.61%
Trades: 1/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.33%
Best MFE: +4.33%
Avg Time to MFE: 100 min

On average, BOW alerts reach +2.33% profit potential within 100 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.14%
Worst MAE: -2.11%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.14%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.05:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.05x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, BOW typically reaches +2.33% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.16%
Best Gap +0.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE

How BOW compares to 22 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BOW: -0.46% Sector: +0.01% -0.47%
EOD Gain
BOW: -2.61% Sector: +58.36% -60.96%
Avg MFE
BOW: +0.33% Sector: +2.97% -2.64%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BOW alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-24 09:27:56 $30.3 -0.46% -0.87% -0.96% -1.95% -2.61% +0.33% -0.17% - LOSS
2024-07-11 09:26:37 $25.65 -0.31% - +0.86% +0.14% +3.35% +4.33% -2.11% -0.31% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BOW Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.05% average gain, BOW alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BOW for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BOW with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BOW. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BOW historically offers an average upside of +2.33% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BOW Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, BOW shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BOW may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BOW shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.05%). This suggests BOW is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.