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BRCC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-11 → 2024-02-13

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Feb 09, 2022 🔗 www.blackriflecoffee.com
💰 Market Cap: $108.9M 👥 Employees: 551
BRC Inc is a veteran-controlled company that serves premium coffee, content, and merchandise to active military, veterans, and first responders. It is committed to producing great coffee that consumers love, and high-quality merchandise that enables its community to showcase its brand. Its omnichannel distribution has three components: Direct to Consumer channel includes its e-commerce business, through which consumers order products online and products are shipped to them, Its wholesale channel includes products sold to an intermediary such as convenience, grocery, drug, and mass merchandise stores, who in turn sell those products to consumers, and Outpost channel includes revenue from its Company-operated and franchised Black Rifle Coffee retail coffee shop locations.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
0.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-2.18%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.64%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -2.18%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -2.18%
Best: -0.37%
Worst: -4.46%
Trades: 0/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -7.05%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -7.05%
Best: -2.39%
Worst: -11.13%
Trades: 0/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -6.43%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -6.43%
Best: -1.91%
Worst: -8.86%
Trades: 0/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -8.81%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -8.81%
Best: -3.40%
Worst: -15.43%
Trades: 0/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -9.84%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -9.84%
Best: -1.53%
Worst: -13.68%
Trades: 0/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.64%
Best MFE: +2.44%
Avg Time to MFE: 3 min

On average, BRCC alerts reach +1.64% profit potential within 3 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.27%
Worst MAE: -5.73%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.27%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.72:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, BRCC typically reaches +1.64% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -1.06%
Best Gap +1.48%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BEVERAGES

How BRCC compares to 12 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BRCC: -2.18% Sector: -0.07% -2.11%
EOD Gain
BRCC: -9.84% Sector: +32.94% -42.78%
Avg MFE
BRCC: +1.64% Sector: +1.58% +0.06%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BRCC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-02-13 09:27:42 $4.48 -4.46% -6.47% -8.26% -8.93% -13.17% +0.22% -1.56% -3.57% LOSS
2022-02-22 09:25:00 $20.3 -0.37% -2.39% -1.91% -3.40% -1.53% +2.44% -0.49% +1.48% LOSS
2022-02-14 09:25:00 $16.85 -2.67% -8.19% -6.71% -15.43% -10.98% +1.84% -1.31% -2.08% LOSS
2022-02-11 09:25:00 $18.86 -1.22% -11.13% -8.86% -7.48% -13.68% +2.07% -5.73% -0.05% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BRCC Shows Negative Expectancy

With 0.0% win rate and -2.18% average gain, BRCC alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BRCC for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BRCC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BRCC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BRCC historically offers an average upside of +1.64% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BRCC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 0.0%, BRCC shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BRCC may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BRCC shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -2.18%). This suggests BRCC is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.