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KDP Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 75 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-07 → 2025-02-11

⚠️ Small sample size (75 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. BEVERAGES (SIC 2080)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: May 07, 2008 🔗 www.keurigdrpepper.com
💰 Market Cap: $37.71B 👥 Employees: 29,400
Keurig Dr Pepper was established in 2018 following a merger between Keurig Green Mountain Coffee and Dr Pepper Snapple. The company manufactures and distributes coffee systems (including coffee brewers and single-serve coffee pods) under the Keurig and Green Mountain brands, as well as ready-to-drink beverages including flavored (non-cola) sparkling soft drinks under well-known brands such as Dr Pepper, Snapple, and Canada Dry. The company controls production and route to market for its own brands through in-house manufacturing plants and distribution infrastructure and leverages these facilities to manufacture and distribute for third-party coffee and beverage brands via licensing and partnership agreements. The US and Canada make up 95% of revenue, with the rest from Mexico.
📊
75
Total Alerts
🎯
52.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.02%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.90%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.3%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -0.46%
Best: +1.30%
Worst: -1.56%
Trades: 34/40

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.0%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +0.53%
Avg Loser: -0.57%
Best: +1.96%
Worst: -2.19%
Trades: 33/42

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.54%
Avg Loser: -0.61%
Best: +1.64%
Worst: -3.11%
Trades: 35/40

60MIN

Win Rate: 52.0%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.57%
Avg Loser: -0.66%
Best: +1.64%
Worst: -3.42%
Trades: 39/36

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.0%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.97%
Avg Loser: -0.92%
Best: +3.66%
Worst: -2.78%
Trades: 36/36

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.90%
Best MFE: +3.77%
Avg Time to MFE: 121 min

On average, KDP alerts reach +0.90% profit potential within 121 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.36%
Worst MAE: -1.98%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.36%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.5:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.5x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 75 alerts, KDP typically reaches +0.90% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 75
Gap Up % 42.7%
Avg Gap +0.05%
Best Gap +2.02%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BEVERAGES

How KDP compares to 12 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
KDP: -0.01% Sector: -0.07% +0.06%
EOD Gain
KDP: +0.03% Sector: +32.94% -32.91%
Avg MFE
KDP: +0.90% Sector: +1.58% -0.68%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical KDP alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:25:43 $30.99 -0.37% -0.02% +0.19% +0.05% +1.84% +2.00% -0.47% -0.13% LOSS
2025-02-06 09:29:12 $31.5 -1.24% -1.11% -1.60% -1.52% -1.59% -0.16% -0.83% -0.16% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:26:37 $31.79 -1.50% -1.45% -1.73% -1.20% -2.08% -0.49% -1.98% -1.68% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:25:33 $31.63 -0.16% -0.27% -0.35% -0.03% -0.43% +0.40% -0.52% -0.13% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:27:32 $32.09 +0.61% +0.34% -0.03% -0.02% +0.87% +1.78% -0.50% +0.50% WIN
2024-11-26 09:29:01 $32.9 -0.03% +0.43% +0.03% -0.09% -0.76% +0.43% -0.36% -0.15% LOSS
2024-11-21 09:28:41 $32.03 - -0.22% -0.06% +0.25% +0.66% +0.84% -0.50% -0.06% -
2024-11-20 09:28:41 $31.5 +0.79% +0.51% +0.78% +0.49% +1.71% +1.78% -0.57% -0.03% WIN
2024-11-14 09:25:44 $33.52 +0.12% +0.12% +0.07% -0.25% -0.42% +0.48% -0.48% -0.06% WIN
2024-11-01 09:25:03 $32.9 +0.00% -0.27% -0.14% -0.26% -0.24% +0.24% -0.09% +0.06% LOSS
2024-10-31 09:29:30 $32.96 -0.06% -0.11% +0.03% +0.14% -0.03% +0.49% -0.39% - LOSS
2024-10-30 09:27:53 $32.99 -0.12% -0.03% -0.05% -0.05% - +0.30% -0.73% -0.33% LOSS
2024-10-29 09:26:55 $32.44 +0.65% +0.11% +0.80% +0.97% +1.36% +2.16% -0.25% +0.15% WIN
2024-10-15 09:25:06 $36.81 -0.41% -0.57% -0.29% +0.42% +0.30% +1.06% -0.73% -0.46% LOSS
2024-10-07 09:28:00 $36.38 -0.26% -0.18% +0.15% +0.03% -0.63% +0.36% -0.43% +0.06% LOSS
2024-10-03 09:25:34 $36.98 -0.32% -0.68% -0.99% -0.69% -0.92% - -0.22% -0.35% LOSS
2024-10-01 09:28:52 $37.48 +0.08% +0.07% +0.08% +0.24% -0.77% +0.64% -0.12% +0.64% WIN
2024-09-18 09:29:25 $37.05 +1.30% +1.62% +1.48% +1.50% +1.21% +1.67% +0.67% +0.86% WIN
2024-08-07 09:25:59 $34.65 -1.13% -0.29% +0.19% +0.26% -0.20% +0.81% -1.13% -0.26% LOSS
2024-08-06 09:26:18 $34.24 +0.66% +1.96% +1.64% +1.64% +0.70% +2.06% -0.12% - WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ KDP Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 52.0% win rate, KDP has -0.02% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making KDP profitable.

🔧 Fix KDP Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze KDP with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for KDP. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, KDP historically offers an average upside of +0.90% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 KDP Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.0%, KDP shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.66%) outweigh average wins (+0.57%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: KDP shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.02%). This suggests KDP is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.