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BTI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 271 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

British American Tobacco p.l.c. American Depositary Shares, American Depositary Shares, each representing one Ordinary Share
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 14, 1980 🔗 www.bat.com
💰 Market Cap: $128.03B 👥 Employees: 48,989
The third-largest tobacco company by volume, British American Tobacco sold 518 billion cigarettes in 2024. Its leading brands are Dunhill, Kent, Pall Mall, Lucky Strike, and Rothmans in cigarettes. Its ownership of the Camel, Natural American Spirit, and Newport brands are limited to the US. In next-generation products, the company has the Vuse brand in vaping, Glo in heated tobacco, and Velo in modern oral tobacco. The company also owns a 22.9% stake in ITC limited, the largest Indian cigarette company.
📊
271
Total Alerts
🎯
51.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.07%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+0.70%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 51.1%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.24%
Avg Loser: -0.25%
Best: +0.98%
Worst: -5.46%
Trades: 138/121

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.5%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.36%
Avg Loser: -0.36%
Best: +1.61%
Worst: -5.44%
Trades: 131/135

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.40%
Avg Loser: -0.40%
Best: +1.77%
Worst: -5.71%
Trades: 132/135

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.6%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.45%
Avg Loser: -0.51%
Best: +2.03%
Worst: -5.27%
Trades: 134/133

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 51.9%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.75%
Avg Loser: -0.69%
Best: +2.81%
Worst: -5.09%
Trades: 140/125

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.70%
Best MFE: +2.98%
Avg Time to MFE: 136 min

On average, BTI alerts reach +0.70% profit potential within 136 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.28%
Worst MAE: -5.74%
Avg Time to MAE: 18 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.28%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.47:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.47x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 271 alerts, BTI typically reaches +0.70% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 271
Gap Up % 49.1%
Avg Gap -0.00%
Best Gap +0.63%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BTI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:04 $38.95 -0.14% -0.06% +0.14% +0.26% -0.33% +0.62% -0.31% +0.13% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:29:12 $38.7 +0.49% +0.47% -0.22% +0.18% +2.35% +2.35% -0.62% -0.05% WIN
2025-02-10 09:26:48 $42.09 - -0.25% -0.24% -0.12% +0.50% +0.52% -0.38% -0.21% -
2025-02-06 09:25:16 $41.28 +0.07% - -0.11% +0.18% +0.82% +0.96% -0.22% +0.02% WIN
2025-01-27 09:26:27 $39.06 -0.41% +0.76% +0.42% +0.34% +1.41% +1.64% -0.44% +0.08% LOSS
2025-01-16 09:28:44 $35.44 +0.31% +0.27% +0.28% +0.69% +1.27% +1.48% -0.20% +0.11% WIN
2025-01-15 09:29:33 $35.27 +0.52% +0.89% +0.74% +0.99% +1.50% +1.70% +0.17% +0.17% WIN
2025-01-14 09:27:20 $35.18 +0.54% +0.43% +0.34% +0.44% +1.53% +1.68% +0.03% +0.26% WIN
2024-12-12 09:25:16 $37.62 - +0.11% +0.15% +0.12% -0.16% +0.45% -0.19% -0.11% -
2024-12-11 09:27:49 $38.09 +0.08% +0.18% +0.01% +0.21% -0.92% +0.34% -0.13% +0.03% WIN
2024-12-05 09:27:17 $37.75 +0.03% +0.58% +0.19% +0.11% +0.08% +0.66% -0.11% -0.03% WIN
2024-12-04 09:29:26 $37.27 -0.24% -0.52% -0.19% +0.03% -0.21% +0.12% -0.52% -0.08% LOSS
2024-11-19 09:28:23 $36.6 -0.08% -0.08% +0.02% +0.10% +0.90% +1.07% -0.23% -0.05% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:26:44 $36.0 -0.80% -0.97% -1.29% -1.86% -1.00% - -0.82% -0.08% LOSS
2024-11-01 09:27:45 $35.23 +0.37% +0.18% +0.06% -0.05% -0.45% +0.68% - +0.09% WIN
2024-10-30 09:29:01 $34.55 -0.46% -0.06% -0.14% -0.49% -0.55% +0.06% -0.69% -0.07% LOSS
2024-10-22 09:26:12 $34.13 +0.35% +0.83% +1.34% +1.41% +2.23% +2.23% +0.12% +0.15% WIN
2024-10-18 09:27:45 $34.48 -0.06% -0.17% -0.08% -0.18% +0.06% +0.26% -0.35% -0.14% LOSS
2024-10-03 09:27:11 $35.27 -0.20% -0.30% -0.03% -0.09% -0.45% +0.20% -0.48% -0.09% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:27:53 $37.45 +0.20% +0.44% +0.85% +0.93% +0.99% +1.63% -0.05% +0.05% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 51.9% Baseline on BTI

The 51.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push BTI's performance to 75%+.

Optimize BTI Strategy →

Why Analyze BTI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BTI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BTI historically offers an average upside of +0.70% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BTI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.9%, BTI shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show BTI performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.07%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.