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Latest signal:

BTSG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-02-02 → 2024-11-12

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock SERVICES-HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES (SIC 8082)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 26, 2024 🔗 www.brightspringhealth.com
💰 Market Cap: $7.15B 👥 Employees: 600
BrightSpring Health Services Inc is a home and community-based healthcare services platform, focused on delivering complementary pharmacy and provider services to complex patients. Its platform delivers clinical services and pharmacy solutions across Medicare, Medicaid, and commercially insured populations. Its segments include Pharmacy Solutions, Provider Services, and others. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Pharmacy Solutions segment.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
57.1%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+1.34%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+2.35%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: +1.03%
Avg Winner: +4.05%
Avg Loser: -1.24%
Best: +11.36%
Worst: -2.10%
Trades: 3/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +1.48%
Avg Winner: +4.19%
Avg Loser: -1.23%
Best: +12.22%
Worst: -2.35%
Trades: 3/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +1.34%
Avg Winner: +3.24%
Avg Loser: -1.18%
Best: +12.35%
Worst: -2.03%
Trades: 4/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +1.30%
Avg Winner: +3.12%
Avg Loser: -1.12%
Best: +11.73%
Worst: -1.78%
Trades: 4/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.75%
Avg Winner: +3.27%
Avg Loser: -1.78%
Best: +11.85%
Worst: -3.46%
Trades: 4/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.35%
Best MFE: +13.21%
Avg Time to MFE: 189 min

On average, BTSG alerts reach +2.35% profit potential within 189 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: +0.32%
Worst MAE: -3.07%
Avg Time to MAE: 73 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.32%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

7.33:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 7.33x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, BTSG typically reaches +2.35% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 37.5%
Avg Gap +0.91%
Best Gap +11.11%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES

How BTSG compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BTSG: +1.11% Sector: +0.49% +0.63%
EOD Gain
BTSG: +1.13% Sector: +0.70% +0.42%
Avg MFE
BTSG: +2.55% Sector: +3.81% -1.25%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BTSG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-12 09:29:14 $20.24 -2.10% -0.69% -0.69% -1.31% -3.46% +0.05% -2.10% -1.83% LOSS
2024-11-11 09:28:36 $20.19 -1.46% -2.35% -2.03% -1.78% -0.74% -0.05% -3.07% -2.77% LOSS
2024-10-17 09:27:05 $15.86 -0.38% +0.16% +0.13% +0.50% +0.32% +1.26% -0.88% -0.44% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:26:14 $14.96 +0.53% - +0.13% +0.07% -1.60% +1.07% -0.47% +0.27% WIN
2024-04-01 09:27:25 $10.98 -1.00% -0.64% -0.82% -0.27% +0.09% +0.36% -2.09% -0.55% LOSS
2024-03-08 09:26:34 $8.1 +11.36% +12.22% +12.35% +11.73% +11.85% +13.21% +9.88% +11.11% WIN
2024-02-08 09:27:25 $11.49 +0.26% +0.17% +0.35% +0.17% -1.31% +0.48% -0.87% -0.26% WIN
2024-02-02 00:00:00 $11.01 - - - - +0.82% +2.45% +2.18% +1.73% -

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 57.1% Baseline on BTSG

The 57.1% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push BTSG's performance to 75%+.

Optimize BTSG Strategy →

Why Analyze BTSG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BTSG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BTSG historically offers an average upside of +2.35% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BTSG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 57.1%, BTSG shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show BTSG performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.34%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.