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CAG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 22 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-04-07 → 2025-02-07

⚠️ Small sample size (22 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.conagrabrands.com
💰 Market Cap: $8.37B 👥 Employees: 18,300
Conagra Brands is a packaged food company that operates predominantly in the United States (91% of fiscal 2025 revenue). Most of its revenue comes from frozen food, including brands like Marie Callender's, Healthy Choice, Banquet, and Birds Eye. Conagra also sells snacks, shelf-stable staples, and refrigerated food through brands like Duncan Hines, Hunt's, Slim Jim, Vlasic, Orville Redenbacher's, Reddi-wip, and Wish-Bone. The company primarily sells through the US retail channel, with just 9% of fiscal 2025 revenue coming from international markets and 9% from foodservice.
📊
22
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.13%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.34%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: +0.15%
Avg Winner: +0.92%
Avg Loser: -0.48%
Best: +2.58%
Worst: -1.03%
Trades: 10/12

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.9%
Avg Gain: +0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.49%
Avg Loser: -0.72%
Best: +3.39%
Worst: -2.28%
Trades: 9/13

30MIN

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.66%
Avg Loser: -1.03%
Best: +3.77%
Worst: -2.61%
Trades: 8/13

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +1.26%
Avg Loser: -1.24%
Best: +2.98%
Worst: -3.17%
Trades: 10/12

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.94%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +2.07%
Worst: -4.52%
Trades: 11/11

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.34%
Best MFE: +4.08%
Avg Time to MFE: 90 min

On average, CAG alerts reach +1.34% profit potential within 90 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.62%
Worst MAE: -2.45%
Avg Time to MAE: 7 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.62%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.16:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.16x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 22 alerts, CAG typically reaches +1.34% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 22
Gap Up % 40.9%
Avg Gap -0.10%
Best Gap +1.07%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FOOD AND KINDRED PRODUCTS

How CAG compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CAG: +0.15% Sector: -0.08% +0.24%
EOD Gain
CAG: -0.13% Sector: -0.37% +0.23%
Avg MFE
CAG: +1.34% Sector: +4.63% -3.29%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CAG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-07 09:25:26 $25.05 +0.44% -0.88% -0.90% -0.96% -0.92% +0.44% -0.12% -0.12% WIN
2024-12-27 09:25:33 $27.53 -0.11% +0.51% +0.49% +0.56% +0.47% +0.74% -0.80% -0.80% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:25:34 $26.56 +0.90% +1.96% +2.22% +1.68% +2.07% +2.56% -0.23% +0.60% WIN
2024-10-02 09:27:12 $30.66 -0.52% -2.28% -1.66% -3.10% -1.89% -0.16% -2.45% -1.86% LOSS
2024-07-11 09:27:33 $28.13 -0.91% -0.59% -1.97% -0.52% +0.89% +1.28% -2.38% -0.43% LOSS
2024-05-01 09:26:34 $30.72 +0.20% -0.21% +0.11% +0.86% +0.07% +0.98% -0.49% -0.16% WIN
2024-04-04 09:26:30 $30.75 +0.59% -0.94% -0.60% -1.12% -0.36% +2.08% - +1.07% WIN
2023-10-05 09:29:00 $25.99 +2.58% +3.39% +3.77% +1.87% +0.04% +4.08% -0.88% -0.77% WIN
2023-05-22 09:27:00 $36.08 -1.03% -1.05% -1.44% -2.29% -1.91% -0.50% -0.72% -0.50% LOSS
2023-05-16 09:26:00 $36.46 -0.85% -0.08% -0.03% +0.14% -0.05% +0.45% -1.12% -0.03% LOSS
2023-05-11 09:25:00 $36.75 -0.14% -0.71% -1.67% -1.36% -0.68% +0.03% -0.20% -0.16% LOSS
2023-05-09 09:29:00 $37.75 -0.16% -0.26% - -0.07% +0.16% +0.61% -0.49% -0.13% LOSS
2023-04-14 09:25:00 $37.52 -0.64% -0.43% -0.79% -1.36% -1.47% -0.29% -0.69% -0.48% LOSS
2023-04-05 09:26:00 $37.6 +1.51% +2.17% +1.68% +1.41% +1.78% +3.55% -0.21% -0.03% WIN
2023-02-22 09:28:00 $36.36 +0.25% +0.58% +0.72% +1.18% -0.30% +1.35% +0.06% +0.14% WIN
2023-02-21 09:29:00 $36.57 -0.34% -1.68% -1.50% -0.40% -0.57% +0.25% -0.03% +0.08% LOSS
2023-02-06 09:25:00 $36.16 +1.00% +1.30% +1.55% +1.47% +2.07% +2.18% +0.77% +0.83% WIN
2023-01-19 09:26:00 $38.49 -0.27% -0.09% -0.01% -0.14% -0.57% +0.25% -0.29% +0.05% LOSS
2023-01-10 09:28:00 $40.36 -0.05% +0.17% -0.05% +0.43% +0.20% +1.08% -0.37% +0.57% LOSS
2023-01-05 09:26:00 $39.6 +1.31% +1.57% -0.15% -0.45% +0.93% +2.97% -0.40% +0.15% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CAG Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.13% average gain, CAG alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider CAG for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze CAG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CAG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CAG historically offers an average upside of +1.34% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CAG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, CAG shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests CAG may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CAG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.13%). This suggests CAG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.