FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

CAR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 11 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-15 → 2024-06-26

⚠️ Small sample size (11 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 02, 1968 🔗 www.avisbudgetgroup.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.28B 👥 Employees: 24,000
Avis Budget Group Inc is a provider of automotive vehicle rental and car-sharing services. Its brands include Avis, Budget, and Zipcar. Avis is targeted to serve the premium commercial and leisure segments of the travel industry, while Budget is focused on value-conscious customers. The company operates its own network of rental locations and licenses its brands to franchisees. Zipcar is a car-sharing service that allows members to use the company-owned Zipcar fleet at an hourly rate. The majority of the company's revenue comes from the Americas.
📊
11
Total Alerts
🎯
36.4%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-1.41%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.73%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 9.1%
Avg Gain: -0.96%
Avg Winner: +1.28%
Avg Loser: -1.18%
Best: +1.28%
Worst: -3.81%
Trades: 1/10

15MIN

Win Rate: 18.2%
Avg Gain: -1.39%
Avg Winner: +1.55%
Avg Loser: -2.04%
Best: +1.60%
Worst: -10.01%
Trades: 2/9

30MIN

Win Rate: 18.2%
Avg Gain: -1.55%
Avg Winner: +1.47%
Avg Loser: -2.22%
Best: +2.55%
Worst: -10.87%
Trades: 2/9

60MIN

Win Rate: 27.3%
Avg Gain: -1.81%
Avg Winner: +1.07%
Avg Loser: -2.89%
Best: +1.62%
Worst: -12.55%
Trades: 3/8

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -1.41%
Avg Winner: +2.75%
Avg Loser: -3.78%
Best: +5.07%
Worst: -10.47%
Trades: 4/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.73%
Best MFE: +6.70%
Avg Time to MFE: 138 min

On average, CAR alerts reach +1.73% profit potential within 138 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.44%
Worst MAE: -2.10%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.44%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.2:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 11 alerts, CAR typically reaches +1.73% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 11
Gap Up % 9.1%
Avg Gap -0.91%
Best Gap +0.04%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-AUTO RENTAL & LEASING (NO DRIVERS)

How CAR compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CAR: -0.96% Sector: -0.02% -0.93%
EOD Gain
CAR: -1.41% Sector: +179.82% -181.23%
Avg MFE
CAR: +1.73% Sector: +5.77% -4.04%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CAR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-06-26 09:29:17 $110.81 -1.03% -0.46% -0.70% -0.83% -2.48% -0.46% -1.50% -0.90% LOSS
2024-06-14 09:27:04 $108.21 -0.82% -1.97% -2.52% -3.41% -2.74% -0.44% -2.01% -2.01% LOSS
2024-05-29 09:25:02 $111.24 -1.56% -0.95% -1.47% -0.22% -1.78% -0.22% -2.10% -2.10% LOSS
2024-05-02 09:28:01 $111.0 +1.28% +1.60% +0.39% +0.41% +2.50% +6.70% -1.40% -0.66% WIN
2024-04-12 09:25:34 $121.04 -1.02% -1.07% -1.80% -3.01% -5.21% -0.27% -1.02% -0.86% LOSS
2024-04-05 09:25:06 $121.49 -1.93% -1.56% -1.04% -1.47% -0.06% +0.84% -2.02% -1.93% LOSS
2024-04-04 09:28:38 $124.99 -0.70% -0.90% -0.60% -1.26% -3.75% +0.93% -2.02% -0.63% LOSS
2024-03-20 09:28:43 $115.25 -0.00% -0.45% -0.54% -0.35% +1.17% +1.99% -1.43% -0.38% LOSS
2024-03-07 09:28:52 $106.11 -0.00% +1.49% +2.55% +1.62% +5.07% +6.04% -0.97% -0.10% LOSS
2024-03-01 09:27:47 $108.07 -0.92% -0.97% -0.44% +1.20% +2.27% +3.96% -1.35% +0.04% LOSS
2022-02-15 09:25:00 $191.28 -3.81% -10.01% -10.87% -12.55% -10.47% -0.00% -0.00% -0.47% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CAR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 36.4% win rate and -1.41% average gain, CAR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider CAR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze CAR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CAR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CAR historically offers an average upside of +1.73% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CAR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 36.4%, CAR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests CAR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CAR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -1.41%). This suggests CAR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.