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CDNA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-31 → 2024-10-01

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 17, 2014 🔗 www.caredx.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.05B 👥 Employees: 650
CareDx Inc operates as a precision medicine company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of clinically differentiated, high-value healthcare solutions for transplant patients and caregivers. It offers testing services, products, and digital solutions along with the pre- and post-transplant patient journey and is a provider of genomics-based information for transplant patients. The Company's commercially available testing services consist of AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients, and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. Geographically the company generates the majority of its revenue from the United States. The company generates the majority of revenue from the Testing services.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
25.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.88%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+5.10%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.88%
Avg Winner: +7.06%
Avg Loser: -3.52%
Best: +13.20%
Worst: -13.22%
Trades: 2/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -2.14%
Avg Winner: +5.88%
Avg Loser: -4.82%
Best: +11.40%
Worst: -8.05%
Trades: 2/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 12.5%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +28.86%
Avg Loser: -4.93%
Best: +28.86%
Worst: -6.62%
Trades: 1/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.78%
Avg Winner: +13.00%
Avg Loser: -5.37%
Best: +25.93%
Worst: -7.80%
Trades: 2/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.40%
Avg Winner: +16.95%
Avg Loser: -7.41%
Best: +29.81%
Worst: -13.72%
Trades: 2/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.10%
Best MFE: +36.65%
Avg Time to MFE: 55 min

On average, CDNA alerts reach +5.10% profit potential within 55 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.73%
Worst MAE: -3.72%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.73%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.96:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.96x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, CDNA typically reaches +5.10% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 37.5%
Avg Gap -0.87%
Best Gap +2.22%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-MEDICAL LABORATORIES

How CDNA compares to 18 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CDNA: -0.88% Sector: -0.18% -0.70%
EOD Gain
CDNA: -0.40% Sector: +911658.96% -911659.35%
Avg MFE
CDNA: +5.10% Sector: +11.20% -6.10%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CDNA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-01 09:26:08 $31.38 -0.89% -3.81% -4.17% -3.98% -1.45% -0.25% -0.41% -1.08% LOSS
2023-11-09 09:29:00 $8.01 -0.62% -8.05% -6.62% -7.80% -9.99% +0.87% -0.87% -0.12% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:25:00 $5.41 -0.92% -3.14% -2.87% -0.92% - +2.22% -0.92% +2.22% LOSS
2023-05-11 09:29:00 $6.44 +13.20% +11.40% +28.86% +25.93% +29.81% +36.65% -3.41% +0.16% WIN
2023-03-03 09:25:00 $9.49 -13.22% -5.53% -5.27% -7.17% -5.48% +1.14% -1.05% -1.90% LOSS
2023-02-22 09:27:00 $13.46 +0.93% +0.37% - +0.07% +4.09% +4.09% -1.04% +0.15% WIN
2023-02-21 09:28:00 $15.6 -2.50% -3.78% -5.64% -6.86% -13.72% -1.92% -2.37% -2.88% LOSS
2022-05-31 09:25:00 $26.88 -2.98% -4.58% -4.99% -5.51% -6.44% -1.97% -3.72% -3.50% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CDNA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 25.0% win rate and -0.88% average gain, CDNA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider CDNA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze CDNA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CDNA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CDNA historically offers an average upside of +5.10% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CDNA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 25.0%, CDNA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests CDNA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CDNA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.88%). This suggests CDNA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.