Latest signal:
CENX Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-07 → 2023-04-25
⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, CENX alerts reach +2.41% profit potential within 54 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.70%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, CENX typically reaches +2.41% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.9% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM
How CENX compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical CENX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-25 | 09:27:00 | $8.83 | -3.40% | -2.83% | -3.34% | -5.21% | -7.81% | -1.81% | -2.27% | -2.04% | LOSS |
| 2022-10-13 | 09:25:00 | $5.96 | +2.52% | -2.52% | +3.45% | -0.76% | +9.23% | +10.15% | -3.19% | -0.17% | WIN |
| 2022-09-30 | 09:25:00 | $6.01 | +1.00% | -5.57% | -5.41% | -6.49% | -12.15% | +1.50% | -2.33% | -1.33% | WIN |
| 2022-09-29 | 09:25:00 | $6.47 | +1.55% | -6.34% | -5.87% | -5.72% | -0.15% | +2.47% | -0.70% | +0.15% | WIN |
| 2022-07-21 | 09:25:00 | $7.1 | +0.42% | -0.85% | +0.42% | -4.37% | -1.55% | +1.69% | -0.70% | -0.70% | WIN |
| 2022-04-29 | 09:25:00 | $18.19 | -1.59% | -1.44% | -2.20% | -3.90% | -7.26% | +2.58% | -2.42% | -1.10% | LOSS |
| 2022-03-07 | 09:25:00 | $30.3 | -2.57% | -3.58% | -4.82% | -2.44% | -6.40% | +0.30% | -0.26% | -1.16% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ CENX Shows Negative Expectancy
Despite a 57.1% win rate, CENX has -0.30% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making CENX profitable.
🔧 Fix CENX Risk/Reward →Why Analyze CENX with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CENX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, CENX historically offers an average upside of +2.41% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 CENX Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 57.1%, CENX shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.52%) outweigh average wins (+1.37%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: CENX shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.30%). This suggests CENX is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.