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CFFN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-02-21 → 2023-03-13

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. SAVINGS INSTITUTION, FEDERALLY CHARTERED (SIC 6035)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Apr 01, 1999 🔗 www.capfed.com
💰 Market Cap: $887.2M 👥 Employees: 678
Capitol Federal Financial Inc is a bank holding company that operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary bank. The bank is a community-oriented financial institution that offers a variety of financial services through tens of locations. It mainly serves metropolitan areas within the state of Kansas. The bank performs traditional banking functions such as deposit-taking activities and investing that money in first-lien residential mortgages. It also participates in commercial real estate loans with other lenders, investing those funds in various securities. The vast majority of the bank's loan portfolio is in originated one- to four-family real estate loans. Its primary source of income is net interest income.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
33.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-2.28%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
-0.81%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.28%
Avg Winner: +0.36%
Avg Loser: -3.59%
Best: +0.36%
Worst: -6.37%
Trades: 1/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.54%
Avg Winner: +0.48%
Avg Loser: -4.05%
Best: +0.48%
Worst: -7.52%
Trades: 1/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.45%
Avg Winner: +0.42%
Avg Loser: -3.88%
Best: +0.42%
Worst: -6.37%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -3.53%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -5.30%
Best: +0.00%
Worst: -9.15%
Trades: 0/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -2.18%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -2.18%
Best: -0.59%
Worst: -4.20%
Trades: 0/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: -0.81%
Best MFE: +0.71%
Avg Time to MFE: 107 min

On average, CFFN alerts reach -0.81% profit potential within 107 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.83%
Worst MAE: -10.09%
Avg Time to MAE: 22 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.83%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.21:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, CFFN typically reaches -0.81% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around -0.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap -1.25%
Best Gap +0.36%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SAVINGS INSTITUTION, FEDERALLY CHARTERED

How CFFN compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CFFN: -2.28% Sector: -1.11% -1.17%
EOD Gain
CFFN: -2.18% Sector: +1.90% -4.08%
Avg MFE
CFFN: -0.81% Sector: +2.99% -3.80%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CFFN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-03-13 09:27:00 $7.38 -6.37% -7.52% -6.37% -9.15% -4.20% -2.71% -10.09% -3.52% LOSS
2023-02-22 09:26:00 $8.42 +0.36% +0.48% +0.42% - -0.59% +0.71% +0.24% +0.36% WIN
2023-02-21 09:27:00 $8.57 -0.82% -0.58% -1.40% -1.46% -1.75% -0.43% -1.63% -0.58% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CFFN Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -2.28% average gain, CFFN alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider CFFN for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze CFFN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CFFN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CFFN historically offers an average upside of -0.81% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CFFN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, CFFN shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests CFFN may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CFFN shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -2.28%). This suggests CFFN is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.