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CGTX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 40 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-08-05 → 2025-02-03

⚠️ Small sample size (40 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Cognition Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (SIC 2836)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 08, 2021 🔗 www.cogrx.com
💰 Market Cap: $126.2M 👥 Employees: 25
Cognition Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery and development of, small-molecule therapeutics targeting age-related degenerative diseases and disorders of the central nervous system and retina. Its product candidate CT1812, is an orally delivered, small-molecule antagonist designed to penetrate the blood-brain barrier and bind selectively to the S2R complex.
📊
40
Total Alerts
🎯
47.5%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-1.37%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+8.30%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.5%
Avg Gain: -0.94%
Avg Winner: +1.57%
Avg Loser: -3.06%
Best: +5.46%
Worst: -8.90%
Trades: 17/21

15MIN

Win Rate: 35.9%
Avg Gain: -1.85%
Avg Winner: +3.23%
Avg Loser: -4.69%
Best: +9.80%
Worst: -18.27%
Trades: 14/25

30MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -2.98%
Avg Winner: +3.51%
Avg Loser: -5.98%
Best: +11.57%
Worst: -26.92%
Trades: 12/27

60MIN

Win Rate: 36.8%
Avg Gain: -3.28%
Avg Winner: +3.91%
Avg Loser: -7.47%
Best: +12.33%
Worst: -30.50%
Trades: 14/24

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -1.37%
Avg Winner: +6.56%
Avg Loser: -8.97%
Best: +24.90%
Worst: -50.00%
Trades: 19/20

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.30%
Best MFE: +35.30%
Avg Time to MFE: 132 min

On average, CGTX alerts reach +8.30% profit potential within 132 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.59%
Worst MAE: -13.45%
Avg Time to MAE: 23 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.59%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.31:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.31x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 40 alerts, CGTX typically reaches +8.30% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 40
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +3.70%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How CGTX compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CGTX: -1.07% Sector: -0.41% -0.66%
EOD Gain
CGTX: -1.57% Sector: +1233.50% -1235.07%
Avg MFE
CGTX: +8.32% Sector: +6.69% +1.63%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CGTX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-03 09:29:14 $0.68 -1.41% +1.07% -2.87% -1.75% -2.00% +2.97% -4.43% -1.27% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:26:29 $0.78 +0.47% -1.90% -5.38% -6.23% -7.84% +1.27% -1.73% +0.70% WIN
2025-01-30 09:29:06 $0.78 -1.28% -4.06% -6.40% -5.35% -1.50% +4.49% -8.97% -0.26% LOSS
2025-01-07 09:26:18 $0.82 +0.02% +0.01% +1.84% -2.43% +0.04% +5.87% -4.59% +0.13% WIN
2025-01-06 09:28:24 $0.76 +3.80% +7.82% +4.55% +4.87% +12.14% +18.25% +0.18% +2.56% WIN
2025-01-02 09:27:40 $0.71 -1.38% -2.72% -1.59% +2.01% +1.86% +8.30% -5.45% +0.63% LOSS
2024-12-31 09:28:14 $0.73 +1.11% +0.05% +0.40% +0.82% -4.18% +3.69% -1.56% +0.08% WIN
2024-12-30 09:27:19 $0.81 -4.90% -5.37% -5.93% -5.24% -7.40% +1.23% -1.21% -0.60% LOSS
2024-12-27 09:25:45 $0.76 -2.21% -0.30% -1.13% +2.76% +10.56% +16.10% -3.92% +1.34% LOSS
2024-12-26 09:28:03 $0.65 +1.90% +1.16% +0.07% +4.69% +17.63% +21.09% -0.05% -0.05% WIN
2024-12-24 09:25:09 $0.6 +2.72% +2.56% +3.54% +5.26% +8.25% +13.11% - +2.64% WIN
2024-12-23 09:29:41 $0.62 -4.55% -4.52% +0.19% -1.72% -1.18% +1.40% -1.82% +1.40% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:28:08 $0.63 +0.52% -1.46% -6.37% -3.30% +0.02% +7.54% -7.94% +1.59% WIN
2024-12-19 09:25:02 $0.7 -8.90% -9.87% -8.54% -14.84% -9.44% -1.56% -5.06% -7.60% LOSS
2024-12-18 09:25:01 $1.16 -2.50% -0.86% -23.22% -30.50% -50.00% +11.21% -7.76% -0.86% LOSS
2024-12-13 09:26:21 $0.5 -0.50% -2.68% -2.88% -6.63% -5.06% +2.11% -0.70% -0.70% LOSS
2024-12-11 09:26:10 $0.45 -1.41% -8.37% -3.61% +1.70% +8.50% +16.05% -9.73% -1.18% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:28:11 $0.41 +0.12% -0.86% -1.53% -1.33% -1.28% +0.64% +0.64% +0.64% WIN
2024-11-29 09:27:14 $0.4 +0.48% -3.27% -2.01% -1.48% +1.00% +1.13% -5.18% +0.50% WIN
2024-11-26 09:28:46 $0.4 -0.87% -4.59% -4.19% -4.49% +0.82% +2.92% -6.23% -2.04% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CGTX Shows Negative Expectancy

With 47.5% win rate and -1.37% average gain, CGTX alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider CGTX for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze CGTX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CGTX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CGTX historically offers an average upside of +8.30% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CGTX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 47.5%, CGTX shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests CGTX may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CGTX shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -1.37%). This suggests CGTX is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.