Latest signal:
CIEN Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 14 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-15 → 2025-01-27
⚠️ Small sample size (14 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, CIEN alerts reach +3.64% profit potential within 89 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.55%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.35x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 14 alerts, CIEN typically reaches +3.64% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.9% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: TELEPHONE & TELEGRAPH APPARATUS
How CIEN compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical CIEN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-27 | 09:28:50 | $85.0 | -4.26% | -6.05% | -3.01% | -3.69% | -10.25% | +1.18% | -4.41% | -0.47% | LOSS |
| 2024-12-12 | 09:25:44 | $83.68 | +3.06% | +4.21% | +6.05% | +1.96% | +1.00% | +6.66% | -1.33% | -0.01% | WIN |
| 2024-09-04 | 09:28:52 | $59.2 | -4.38% | -5.74% | -6.89% | -6.18% | -7.21% | +0.07% | -2.43% | -1.69% | LOSS |
| 2024-06-06 | 09:25:48 | $52.7 | -0.68% | -3.46% | -3.62% | -4.29% | -7.86% | +1.67% | -1.99% | -0.23% | LOSS |
| 2024-03-07 | 09:28:16 | $54.25 | -4.08% | +0.04% | +1.24% | -1.60% | -2.60% | +1.64% | -5.53% | -0.92% | LOSS |
| 2023-12-07 | 09:27:00 | $45.0 | +2.80% | +3.20% | +5.78% | +5.78% | +2.91% | +7.47% | -1.00% | +0.20% | WIN |
| 2023-08-31 | 09:26:00 | $48.07 | +0.10% | +0.92% | +1.64% | +2.57% | +3.97% | +4.54% | -0.62% | +1.12% | WIN |
| 2023-06-06 | 09:26:00 | $43.85 | -3.76% | -2.82% | -3.65% | -3.51% | -3.33% | - | -0.34% | -2.12% | LOSS |
| 2023-03-06 | 09:26:00 | $54.03 | -2.55% | -6.69% | -5.27% | -5.59% | -5.81% | +0.91% | - | +0.41% | LOSS |
| 2022-12-08 | 09:25:00 | $50.17 | +0.43% | +3.55% | +1.64% | +1.61% | +3.39% | +4.54% | - | +0.68% | WIN |
| 2022-09-01 | 09:25:00 | $47.0 | +2.05% | +1.15% | +1.13% | +0.09% | -3.23% | +2.81% | -1.47% | +1.06% | WIN |
| 2022-06-02 | 09:25:00 | $47.5 | +0.55% | +0.93% | +1.94% | +2.42% | +6.69% | +8.23% | -1.89% | -1.05% | WIN |
| 2022-03-02 | 09:25:00 | $67.43 | +0.10% | +0.28% | +0.61% | +0.22% | +4.08% | +4.17% | -0.52% | -0.46% | WIN |
| 2022-02-15 | 09:25:00 | $64.27 | - | +1.91% | +2.69% | +2.29% | +6.63% | +7.07% | -0.17% | +0.23% | - |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ CIEN Shows Negative Expectancy
Despite a 64.3% win rate, CIEN has -0.61% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making CIEN profitable.
🔧 Fix CIEN Risk/Reward →Why Analyze CIEN with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CIEN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, CIEN historically offers an average upside of +3.64% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 CIEN Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 64.3%, CIEN shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-4.95%) outweigh average wins (+1.80%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: CIEN shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.61%). This suggests CIEN is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.