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CINF Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-08 → 2022-04-25

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.cinfin.com
💰 Market Cap: $24.50B 👥 Employees: 5,624
Cincinnati Financial Corp is a property and casualty insurance company that generates income through written premiums. A select group of independent agencies actively markets the company's business, home, and automotive insurance within their communities. These agents offer the company's personal lines as well as its standard market, excess, and surplus commercial line policies in many regions in the United States. Cincinnati Financial also offers leasing and financing services. The company operates in segments: Commercial lines insurance, Personal lines insurance, and Excess and surplus lines insurance, Life insurance, and Investments. The vast majority of the company's revenue is generated through commercial lines, followed by personal lines.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
25.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.34%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.50%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.34%
Avg Winner: +0.12%
Avg Loser: -0.50%
Best: +0.12%
Worst: -0.59%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.73%
Avg Winner: +0.08%
Avg Loser: -1.00%
Best: +0.08%
Worst: -1.34%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.60%
Avg Winner: +0.01%
Avg Loser: -0.81%
Best: +0.01%
Worst: -1.49%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.89%
Avg Winner: +0.03%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +0.03%
Worst: -1.77%
Trades: 1/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.64%
Avg Winner: +1.12%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: +1.12%
Worst: -1.82%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.50%
Best MFE: +1.60%
Avg Time to MFE: 103 min

On average, CINF alerts reach +0.50% profit potential within 103 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.69%
Worst MAE: -1.25%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.69%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.71:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, CINF typically reaches +0.50% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.14%
Best Gap +0.18%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE

How CINF compares to 22 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CINF: -0.34% Sector: +0.01% -0.35%
EOD Gain
CINF: -0.64% Sector: +58.36% -59.00%
Avg MFE
CINF: +0.50% Sector: +2.97% -2.48%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CINF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-04-25 09:25:00 $136.31 -0.59% -1.34% -1.49% -1.54% -0.17% +0.18% -0.59% +0.18% LOSS
2022-02-14 09:25:00 $121.53 -0.37% +0.08% -0.61% -1.77% -1.69% +0.09% -0.37% -0.32% LOSS
2022-02-11 09:25:00 $123.38 -0.53% -1.12% -0.32% -0.29% -1.82% +0.12% -1.25% -0.53% LOSS
2022-02-08 09:25:00 $121.8 +0.12% -0.54% +0.01% +0.03% +1.12% +1.60% -0.57% +0.12% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CINF Shows Negative Expectancy

With 25.0% win rate and -0.34% average gain, CINF alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider CINF for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze CINF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CINF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CINF historically offers an average upside of +0.50% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CINF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 25.0%, CINF shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests CINF may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CINF shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.34%). This suggests CINF is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.