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CME Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 13 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-08 → 2024-12-04

⚠️ Small sample size (13 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 06, 2002 🔗 www.cmegroup.com
💰 Market Cap: $101.65B 👥 Employees: 3,760
Based in Chicago, CME Group operates exchanges giving investors, suppliers, and businesses the ability to trade futures and derivatives based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign currencies, energy, metals, and commodities. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange was founded in 1898 and in 2002 completed its IPO. Since then, CME Group has consolidated parts of the industry by merging with crosstown rival CBOT Holdings in 2007 before acquiring Nymex Holdings in 2008 and NEX in 2018. In addition, the company has a 27% stake in S&P Dow Jones Indices, making the Chicago Mercantile Exchange the exclusive venue to trade and clear S&P futures contracts. Through CME's acquisition of NEX, it also expanded into cash foreign exchange, fixed-income trading, and collateral optimization.
📊
13
Total Alerts
🎯
53.8%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.15%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.75%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +0.25%
Avg Loser: -0.60%
Best: +0.48%
Worst: -1.14%
Trades: 7/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 15.4%
Avg Gain: -0.46%
Avg Winner: +0.34%
Avg Loser: -0.60%
Best: +0.34%
Worst: -1.26%
Trades: 2/11

30MIN

Win Rate: 23.1%
Avg Gain: -0.61%
Avg Winner: +0.63%
Avg Loser: -0.98%
Best: +0.87%
Worst: -2.07%
Trades: 3/10

60MIN

Win Rate: 23.1%
Avg Gain: -0.39%
Avg Winner: +0.87%
Avg Loser: -0.76%
Best: +0.92%
Worst: -1.56%
Trades: 3/10

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +0.98%
Avg Loser: -1.19%
Best: +2.17%
Worst: -2.85%
Trades: 6/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.75%
Best MFE: +2.50%
Avg Time to MFE: 143 min

On average, CME alerts reach +0.75% profit potential within 143 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.35%
Worst MAE: -1.25%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.35%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.16:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.16x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 13 alerts, CME typically reaches +0.75% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 13
Gap Up % 46.2%
Avg Gap +0.08%
Best Gap +0.55%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SECURITY & COMMODITY BROKERS, DEALERS, EXCHANGES & SERVICES

How CME compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CME: -0.15% Sector: +0.12% -0.26%
EOD Gain
CME: -0.19% Sector: +56.70% -56.89%
Avg MFE
CME: +0.75% Sector: +1.84% -1.09%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CME alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-04 09:28:08 $240.0 +0.20% -0.01% +0.70% +0.91% +1.25% +1.48% -0.43% +0.19% WIN
2024-12-03 09:27:06 $235.61 +0.47% +0.34% +0.87% +0.76% +2.17% +2.50% +0.27% +0.55% WIN
2024-10-17 09:27:43 $229.1 -0.60% -0.90% -0.50% -0.06% -0.82% +0.45% -0.97% -0.39% LOSS
2024-09-11 09:27:35 $217.5 +0.03% -0.23% -0.56% -0.90% +0.50% +0.60% -1.25% +0.53% WIN
2024-09-03 09:28:21 $208.81 +0.48% +0.34% +0.31% +0.92% +1.83% +1.89% -0.57% -0.17% WIN
2024-07-24 09:27:35 $199.39 -1.14% -0.70% -2.07% -0.74% -1.07% +0.58% -0.43% +0.42% LOSS
2022-10-07 09:25:00 $174.9 +0.05% -0.89% -1.15% -1.14% -2.85% +0.05% -0.37% -0.05% WIN
2022-05-31 09:25:00 $198.77 +0.45% -0.24% -0.16% -0.23% +0.03% +0.80% -0.66% +0.54% WIN
2022-04-25 09:25:00 $221.9 -0.57% -0.92% -0.98% -1.33% -0.15% +0.29% +0.29% -0.23% LOSS
2022-02-14 09:25:00 $242.55 -0.67% -0.68% -1.02% -1.56% -1.39% - -0.08% -0.38% LOSS
2022-02-11 09:25:00 $244.05 -0.22% -0.62% -0.87% -0.19% -1.24% - -0.38% - LOSS
2022-02-10 09:25:00 $246.0 +0.06% -0.17% -1.09% -0.40% -0.79% +0.50% +0.50% +0.21% WIN
2022-02-08 09:25:00 $241.19 -0.42% -1.26% -1.44% -1.09% +0.09% +0.60% -0.42% -0.14% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CME Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 53.8% win rate, CME has -0.15% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making CME profitable.

🔧 Fix CME Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze CME with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CME. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CME historically offers an average upside of +0.75% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CME Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.8%, CME shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.60%) outweigh average wins (+0.25%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CME shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.15%). This suggests CME is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.