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CONL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 257 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-10-06 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 09, 2022
📊
257
Total Alerts
🎯
52.9%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.01%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+6.35%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 49.0%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.80%
Avg Loser: -1.73%
Best: +6.61%
Worst: -8.03%
Trades: 125/129

15MIN

Win Rate: 52.9%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +2.58%
Avg Loser: -2.95%
Best: +8.51%
Worst: -12.78%
Trades: 135/119

30MIN

Win Rate: 51.6%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +3.30%
Avg Loser: -3.30%
Best: +24.71%
Worst: -13.81%
Trades: 132/121

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.1%
Avg Gain: +0.16%
Avg Winner: +4.74%
Avg Loser: -3.95%
Best: +32.53%
Worst: -21.29%
Trades: 120/134

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.2%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +6.97%
Avg Loser: -7.03%
Best: +36.53%
Worst: -26.46%
Trades: 129/128

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.35%
Best MFE: +49.73%
Avg Time to MFE: 131 min

On average, CONL alerts reach +6.35% profit potential within 131 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.51%
Worst MAE: -16.55%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.51%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.53:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.53x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 257 alerts, CONL typically reaches +6.35% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 257
Gap Up % 41.6%
Avg Gap -0.12%
Best Gap +4.93%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CONL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:04 $44.3 -0.61% -2.27% -8.24% -6.85% -10.00% +2.28% -4.02% -0.44% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:27:59 $43.8 +0.07% +0.56% +1.62% +4.10% +8.40% +11.35% -2.01% -0.68% WIN
2025-02-12 09:27:48 $37.72 +0.87% +1.96% +4.06% +2.39% +7.87% +10.02% -0.85% -0.56% WIN
2025-02-11 09:26:09 $42.01 -2.44% -2.90% -0.50% -2.19% -8.50% +0.10% -4.55% -1.67% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:27:34 $42.6 +2.61% -2.04% -3.52% -3.59% -0.54% +3.29% -0.61% -0.29% WIN
2025-02-07 09:25:27 $41.06 +1.53% +2.27% +1.95% +0.24% -0.56% +5.02% -2.39% -1.39% WIN
2025-02-06 09:29:59 $42.24 +3.03% -0.47% -2.18% -2.65% -6.13% +3.91% -0.19% -0.19% WIN
2025-02-05 09:25:38 $43.06 +1.25% +1.53% -1.18% -0.39% -4.51% +2.88% -2.60% +1.28% WIN
2025-02-04 09:27:43 $43.88 -1.54% +0.73% -0.80% -0.02% -2.64% +3.60% -3.90% -1.41% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:27:07 $39.41 +2.00% +4.57% +4.67% +10.24% +11.34% +14.95% -0.35% +1.88% WIN
2025-01-31 09:25:55 $49.85 -0.94% -1.85% -1.72% -0.32% -7.14% +1.40% -3.85% -0.80% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:28:09 $47.09 +4.95% +3.93% +6.01% +5.22% +4.91% +8.35% -0.30% -0.11% WIN
2025-01-29 09:28:25 $43.45 +4.87% +1.15% - -0.11% +6.38% +8.93% -3.34% -0.05% WIN
2025-01-28 09:25:50 $43.04 -0.81% -3.11% +1.16% +2.01% +0.91% +3.14% -3.11% +0.05% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:27:01 $44.67 -1.14% -4.05% +0.43% -0.69% -5.13% +3.47% -5.71% -0.92% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:28:20 $49.96 -0.08% +2.18% +2.12% +1.84% -2.00% +6.21% -1.72% -0.66% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:27:56 $46.25 +4.29% +5.92% +5.12% +5.69% +4.26% +9.83% -1.10% -0.26% WIN
2025-01-22 09:25:42 $46.36 +1.99% +3.26% +3.21% +1.47% +4.01% +6.23% -2.39% +0.52% WIN
2025-01-21 09:25:55 $49.36 +1.32% -8.49% -9.66% -13.88% -3.18% +2.63% -16.55% -0.53% WIN
2025-01-17 09:26:44 $46.87 +2.18% +1.42% +4.12% +1.49% +2.77% +6.06% -0.90% +0.60% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CONL Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 52.9% win rate, CONL has -0.01% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making CONL profitable.

🔧 Fix CONL Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze CONL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CONL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CONL historically offers an average upside of +6.35% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CONL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.9%, CONL shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.95%) outweigh average wins (+2.58%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CONL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.01%). This suggests CONL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.