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CVI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-22 → 2024-11-08

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 23, 2007 🔗 www.cvrenergy.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.47B 👥 Employees: 1,595
CVR Energy Inc is a holding company that engages in petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing through its subsidiaries. Subsidiaries include several complex, full-coking crude oil refineries, along with a crude oil gathering system, pipelines and storage tanks, and marketing and supply. The company's refineries can process blends of a variety of crude oil ranging from heavy sour to light sweet crude oil. Crude oil for CVR's refineries is supplied through its wholly-owned gathering system and pipeline. From its refineries, CVR supplies products through tanker trucks directly to customers located in close geographic proximity and customers at throughput terminals. The company's customers include retailers, railroads, and farm cooperatives.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
33.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.62%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+3.15%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.62%
Avg Winner: +2.03%
Avg Loser: -1.94%
Best: +2.03%
Worst: -3.43%
Trades: 1/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -3.17%
Avg Winner: +2.48%
Avg Loser: -6.00%
Best: +2.48%
Worst: -6.49%
Trades: 1/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -4.34%
Avg Winner: +1.38%
Avg Loser: -7.20%
Best: +1.38%
Worst: -8.90%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -4.56%
Avg Winner: +2.12%
Avg Loser: -7.89%
Best: +2.12%
Worst: -10.26%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -3.29%
Avg Winner: +4.23%
Avg Loser: -7.06%
Best: +4.23%
Worst: -8.62%
Trades: 1/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.15%
Best MFE: +6.32%
Avg Time to MFE: 94 min

On average, CVI alerts reach +3.15% profit potential within 94 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: +0.46%
Worst MAE: -0.94%
Avg Time to MAE: 1 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.46%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

6.83:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 6.83x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, CVI typically reaches +3.15% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 100.0%
Avg Gap +0.96%
Best Gap +1.57%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PETROLEUM REFINING

How CVI compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CVI: -0.62% Sector: -0.01% -0.61%
EOD Gain
CVI: -3.29% Sector: +0.04% -3.33%
Avg MFE
CVI: +3.15% Sector: +1.50% +1.65%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CVI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-08 09:26:48 $17.71 +2.03% +2.48% +1.38% +2.12% +4.23% +6.32% -0.06% +0.56% WIN
2024-10-29 09:28:09 $19.11 -3.43% -6.49% -5.49% -5.52% -5.49% +0.73% -0.94% +0.73% LOSS
2022-02-22 09:25:00 $21.0 -0.45% -5.52% -8.90% -10.26% -8.62% +2.38% +2.38% +1.57% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CVI Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -0.62% average gain, CVI alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider CVI for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze CVI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CVI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CVI historically offers an average upside of +3.15% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CVI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, CVI shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests CVI may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CVI shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.62%). This suggests CVI is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.