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MPC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 60 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-05 → 2025-02-11

⚠️ Small sample size (60 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION PETROLEUM REFINING (SIC 2911)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 23, 2011 🔗 www.marathonpetroleum.com
💰 Market Cap: $52.72B 👥 Employees: 18,300
Marathon Petroleum is an independent refiner with 13 refineries in the mid continent, West Coast, and Gulf Coast of the United States with total throughput capacity of 3.0 million barrels per day. Its Dickinson, North Dakota, facility produces 184 million gallons a year of renewable diesel. Its Martinez, California, facility has the ability to produce 730 million gallons a year of renewable diesel. The firm also owns and operates midstream assets primarily through its listed master limited partnership, MPLX.
📊
60
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.23%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+1.72%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 63.3%
Avg Gain: +0.26%
Avg Winner: +0.69%
Avg Loser: -0.47%
Best: +2.41%
Worst: -2.25%
Trades: 38/22

15MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.23%
Avg Winner: +0.80%
Avg Loser: -0.92%
Best: +2.27%
Worst: -3.35%
Trades: 40/20

30MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.27%
Avg Winner: +1.01%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: +3.01%
Worst: -3.50%
Trades: 40/20

60MIN

Win Rate: 61.7%
Avg Gain: +0.43%
Avg Winner: +1.31%
Avg Loser: -1.03%
Best: +3.30%
Worst: -3.18%
Trades: 37/22

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 63.3%
Avg Gain: +0.31%
Avg Winner: +1.34%
Avg Loser: -1.48%
Best: +3.76%
Worst: -3.85%
Trades: 38/22

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.72%
Best MFE: +5.62%
Avg Time to MFE: 135 min

On average, MPC alerts reach +1.72% profit potential within 135 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.48%
Worst MAE: -4.42%
Avg Time to MAE: 18 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.48%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.58:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.58x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 60 alerts, MPC typically reaches +1.72% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 60
Gap Up % 65.0%
Avg Gap +0.09%
Best Gap +1.09%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PETROLEUM REFINING

How MPC compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MPC: +0.26% Sector: -0.01% +0.27%
EOD Gain
MPC: +0.31% Sector: +0.04% +0.26%
Avg MFE
MPC: +1.72% Sector: +1.50% +0.22%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MPC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:26:16 $155.5 +0.73% -0.70% -1.08% -1.91% -0.13% +0.98% -0.26% -0.15% WIN
2025-01-22 09:27:11 $149.7 -0.18% -0.39% -0.94% -0.50% -1.40% +0.59% -0.52% -0.25% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:29:59 $151.32 -0.01% +0.05% +0.15% +0.93% +0.42% +1.20% -0.58% +0.03% LOSS
2024-11-13 09:26:11 $153.34 +1.47% +1.15% +0.50% +0.97% +3.76% +3.82% +0.50% +0.69% WIN
2024-10-22 09:28:37 $157.05 +0.45% +0.07% +0.55% +0.07% +0.76% +0.97% -0.19% +0.29% WIN
2024-08-14 09:28:03 $176.2 +0.11% +0.54% +1.21% +1.12% +1.62% +1.94% -0.20% +0.24% WIN
2024-07-19 09:28:39 $164.52 -0.04% +0.40% +1.06% +0.69% +0.39% +1.43% -0.31% +0.68% LOSS
2024-03-07 09:27:05 $175.18 +0.83% +2.04% +2.04% +2.63% +2.16% +2.88% +0.27% +0.75% WIN
2024-02-26 09:27:31 $170.03 +0.09% +0.86% +1.78% +2.74% +1.42% +3.09% -0.59% -0.24% WIN
2024-02-13 09:26:09 $168.78 +0.09% +0.11% -0.74% -0.86% +0.65% +1.26% -1.15% -0.17% WIN
2023-12-06 09:28:00 $147.67 -0.41% -0.61% -1.11% -0.81% -3.04% +0.06% -0.38% +0.06% LOSS
2023-11-17 09:27:00 $146.15 +0.36% +0.88% +0.66% +1.01% +1.20% +2.82% -0.77% +0.07% WIN
2023-11-09 09:29:00 $144.5 +0.11% -0.80% -1.30% -0.55% -1.87% +0.35% -0.35% -0.35% WIN
2023-11-08 09:26:00 $145.57 +0.01% -0.30% +0.04% -0.78% -1.42% +0.42% -0.51% -0.23% WIN
2023-10-11 09:25:00 $148.3 -0.28% -0.23% -0.03% +0.35% +0.15% +0.71% -0.58% -0.43% LOSS
2023-10-02 09:29:00 $152.11 -0.70% -1.79% -1.54% -2.39% -1.37% -0.34% -0.87% -0.69% LOSS
2023-09-22 09:28:00 $156.49 -0.42% -0.02% +0.07% -0.14% -1.94% +0.76% -0.79% -0.49% LOSS
2023-09-21 09:26:00 $155.2 +2.24% +2.27% +0.30% +0.52% -0.28% +2.77% - +0.35% WIN
2023-09-05 09:28:00 $146.48 +0.64% +0.69% +0.59% +0.20% +0.37% +1.24% -0.18% +0.10% WIN
2023-08-25 09:25:00 $144.5 -0.06% +0.05% -0.19% -0.60% -0.36% +0.82% -1.53% -0.17% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 66.7% Baseline on MPC

The 66.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MPC's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MPC Strategy →

Why Analyze MPC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MPC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MPC historically offers an average upside of +1.72% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MPC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, MPC shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MPC performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.23%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.