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CVS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 169 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-10 → 2025-02-13

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 01, 1952 🔗 www.cvshealth.com
💰 Market Cap: $105.38B 👥 Employees: 300,000
CVS Health offers a diverse set of healthcare services. Its roots are in its retail pharmacy operations, where it operates over 9,000 stores primarily in the US. CVS is also a large pharmacy benefit manager (acquired through Caremark), processing about 2 billion adjusted claims annually. It operates a top-tier health insurer (acquired through Aetna) through which it serves about 27 million medical members. The acquisition of Oak Street Health added primary care services to the mix, which could have significant synergies with all existing business lines.
📊
169
Total Alerts
🎯
58.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.22%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.45%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.8%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.55%
Avg Loser: -0.55%
Best: +2.29%
Worst: -6.01%
Trades: 82/85

15MIN

Win Rate: 49.4%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.89%
Avg Loser: -0.77%
Best: +4.66%
Worst: -5.01%
Trades: 83/84

30MIN

Win Rate: 49.4%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.98%
Avg Loser: -0.88%
Best: +4.68%
Worst: -4.53%
Trades: 83/84

60MIN

Win Rate: 55.4%
Avg Gain: +0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -1.07%
Best: +5.47%
Worst: -6.76%
Trades: 93/75

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 58.0%
Avg Gain: +0.22%
Avg Winner: +1.35%
Avg Loser: -1.36%
Best: +5.10%
Worst: -4.89%
Trades: 98/70

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.45%
Best MFE: +6.44%
Avg Time to MFE: 138 min

On average, CVS alerts reach +1.45% profit potential within 138 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.54%
Worst MAE: -3.41%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.54%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.67:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.67x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 169 alerts, CVS typically reaches +1.45% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 169
Gap Up % 45.0%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +1.45%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-DRUG STORES AND PROPRIETARY STORES

How CVS compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CVS: -0.01% Sector: +0.01% -0.02%
EOD Gain
CVS: +0.23% Sector: +0.24% -0.02%
Avg MFE
CVS: +1.46% Sector: +1.49% -0.02%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CVS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-13 09:28:54 $63.79 +1.36% +1.96% +2.34% +2.63% +4.04% +5.57% -0.36% +0.11% WIN
2025-02-12 09:26:27 $60.24 +1.91% +4.66% +3.70% +4.68% +4.95% +6.42% -0.37% +0.61% WIN
2025-02-04 09:27:14 $55.62 -0.04% +0.30% +1.11% +0.65% +1.31% +1.67% -0.67% -0.20% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:25:40 $55.82 +0.71% +0.64% -0.48% +1.14% +0.23% +1.52% -1.02% +0.47% WIN
2025-01-30 09:29:10 $56.08 -0.34% -1.01% +0.16% +0.23% +1.32% +1.71% -1.36% +0.98% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:25:03 $53.67 -0.30% -1.35% -1.06% -0.50% +0.28% +1.75% -1.83% -0.28% LOSS
2025-01-16 09:28:28 $51.29 +1.31% +1.42% -0.02% -0.72% +1.31% +1.69% -1.29% +0.27% WIN
2025-01-13 09:28:38 $50.07 +0.74% -0.25% +0.14% +0.78% +2.90% +3.39% -1.10% +0.55% WIN
2025-01-10 09:27:42 $46.84 +0.15% +2.00% +1.56% +1.65% +2.50% +2.69% -1.07% -0.90% WIN
2025-01-08 09:28:24 $45.75 -0.63% -1.48% -0.96% -0.75% +0.57% +0.93% -1.81% -0.22% LOSS
2024-12-19 09:29:06 $45.13 -0.49% -0.97% -1.22% -0.73% -2.99% +0.35% -2.46% -1.86% LOSS
2024-12-18 09:29:57 $44.82 +1.36% +2.59% +3.50% +3.60% +1.03% +4.02% -0.51% -0.04% WIN
2024-12-17 09:26:43 $45.65 +0.99% -0.22% -1.14% -0.13% -3.53% +1.40% -0.28% +0.70% WIN
2024-12-13 09:29:39 $49.02 -0.23% -1.37% -1.88% -0.70% +0.71% +1.88% -2.06% +0.24% LOSS
2024-12-12 09:29:58 $51.55 -0.54% -1.09% -0.83% -1.34% -3.82% +1.20% -0.43% -0.10% LOSS
2024-12-10 09:27:13 $56.0 -0.23% -1.84% -2.21% -2.34% -1.52% - -0.52% - LOSS
2024-12-05 09:28:05 $58.0 -0.17% -1.64% -1.09% -2.53% -1.97% +0.48% -0.26% +0.24% LOSS
2024-11-26 09:25:12 $59.7 +0.11% -1.49% -1.34% -1.86% -1.16% +0.23% -0.42% -0.13% WIN
2024-11-25 09:25:10 $59.1 -0.13% +1.22% +1.98% +1.30% +1.66% +2.01% -0.36% -0.17% LOSS
2024-11-21 09:26:26 $56.89 -0.46% -0.70% -0.42% -0.44% +0.37% +0.46% -0.86% -0.16% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 58.0% Baseline on CVS

The 58.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push CVS's performance to 75%+.

Optimize CVS Strategy →

Why Analyze CVS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CVS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CVS historically offers an average upside of +1.45% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CVS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 58.0%, CVS shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show CVS performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.22%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.