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DAR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-08-01 → 2024-03-22

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. FATS & OILS (SIC 2070)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 30, 1994 🔗 www.darlingii.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.76B 👥 Employees: 15,500
Darling Ingredients Inc develops and manufactures sustainable ingredients for customers in the pharmaceutical, food, pet food, fuel, and fertilizer industries. It collects and transforms all aspects of animal by-product streams into ingredients, including gelatin, fats, proteins, pet food ingredients, fertilizers. Also, the company recovers and converts used cooking oil and bakery remnants into feed and fuel ingredients. Darling has three primary business segments which are feed ingredients contributing the majority of revenue, food ingredients, and fuel ingredients. It provides grease trap services for food businesses and sells various equipment for collecting and delivering cooking oil. The company derives the majority of its revenue from customers in North America.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
57.1%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.21%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.04%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: -0.21%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -1.18%
Best: +1.43%
Worst: -1.90%
Trades: 4/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +0.51%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +0.72%
Worst: -1.42%
Trades: 3/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -0.48%
Avg Winner: +0.87%
Avg Loser: -1.02%
Best: +1.67%
Worst: -1.43%
Trades: 2/5

60MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -0.83%
Avg Winner: +0.96%
Avg Loser: -1.55%
Best: +1.67%
Worst: -3.12%
Trades: 2/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.57%
Avg Winner: +1.08%
Avg Loser: -1.81%
Best: +1.49%
Worst: -4.30%
Trades: 3/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.04%
Best MFE: +2.35%
Avg Time to MFE: 123 min

On average, DAR alerts reach +1.04% profit potential within 123 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.96%
Worst MAE: -2.37%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.96%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.08:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, DAR typically reaches +1.04% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 42.9%
Avg Gap -0.32%
Best Gap +1.32%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FATS & OILS

How DAR compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
DAR: -0.21% Sector: -0.09% -0.12%
EOD Gain
DAR: -0.57% Sector: -0.05% -0.52%
Avg MFE
DAR: +1.04% Sector: +1.27% -0.23%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical DAR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-22 09:27:46 $45.98 +0.04% +0.15% -0.35% -0.72% -1.39% +0.96% +0.04% +0.30% WIN
2023-02-07 09:26:00 $66.5 +0.20% -0.62% -0.87% -1.77% -0.66% +0.20% -0.78% -0.75% WIN
2023-01-30 09:28:00 $65.74 -1.22% -1.35% -1.22% -0.50% -0.87% +0.55% -1.60% -1.19% LOSS
2022-11-28 09:25:00 $73.46 -1.90% -1.42% -1.43% -3.12% -4.30% -0.86% -2.37% -1.67% LOSS
2022-11-07 09:25:00 $79.77 +0.42% +0.72% +0.06% +0.24% +0.41% +1.77% -0.34% +0.45% WIN
2022-08-16 09:25:00 $75.47 +1.43% +0.66% +1.67% +1.67% +1.35% +2.35% +0.56% +1.32% WIN
2022-08-01 09:25:00 $69.3 -0.43% -1.41% -1.25% -1.63% +1.49% +2.34% -2.26% -0.72% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ DAR Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 57.1% win rate, DAR has -0.21% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making DAR profitable.

🔧 Fix DAR Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze DAR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for DAR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, DAR historically offers an average upside of +1.04% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 DAR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 57.1%, DAR shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.18%) outweigh average wins (+0.52%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: DAR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.21%). This suggests DAR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.