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Latest signal:

DBC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 13 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-24 → 2023-01-06

⚠️ Small sample size (13 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS (SIC 6221)
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Nov 25, 2008
📊
13
Total Alerts
🎯
61.5%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.13%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+1.26%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 38.5%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.59%
Avg Loser: -0.26%
Best: +1.29%
Worst: -0.43%
Trades: 5/8

15MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: +0.16%
Avg Winner: +0.55%
Avg Loser: -0.29%
Best: +1.36%
Worst: -1.09%
Trades: 7/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 61.5%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.64%
Avg Loser: -0.70%
Best: +1.57%
Worst: -1.74%
Trades: 8/5

60MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: -0.83%
Best: +1.36%
Worst: -1.89%
Trades: 7/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 61.5%
Avg Gain: -0.36%
Avg Winner: +1.15%
Avg Loser: -2.77%
Best: +3.30%
Worst: -3.72%
Trades: 8/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.26%
Best MFE: +3.66%
Avg Time to MFE: 139 min

On average, DBC alerts reach +1.26% profit potential within 139 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.20%
Worst MAE: -0.81%
Avg Time to MAE: 18 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.20%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

6.26:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 6.26x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 13 alerts, DBC typically reaches +1.26% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 13
Gap Up % 46.2%
Avg Gap +0.16%
Best Gap +1.21%

🏭 Sector Comparison: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS

How DBC compares to 41 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
DBC: +0.07% Sector: -0.01% +0.08%
EOD Gain
DBC: -0.36% Sector: +257.70% -258.06%
Avg MFE
DBC: +1.26% Sector: +1.89% -0.63%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical DBC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-01-06 09:28:00 $23.45 +1.11% +0.81% +0.43% +1.19% +0.81% +1.43% +0.43% +1.07% WIN
2022-10-13 09:25:00 $24.86 +1.29% +1.36% +1.57% +1.21% +3.30% +3.66% +1.21% +1.21% WIN
2022-05-31 09:25:00 $29.5 -0.20% -0.10% -0.24% -0.59% -2.37% +0.10% -0.34% -0.20% LOSS
2022-04-05 09:25:00 $26.97 -0.04% +0.33% +0.30% -0.17% -1.71% +0.43% -0.10% - LOSS
2022-03-21 09:25:00 $26.24 +0.04% +0.57% +1.03% +1.24% +1.49% +1.56% -0.08% +0.04% WIN
2022-03-15 09:25:00 $24.54 -0.37% +0.20% +0.12% -0.29% +0.20% +1.47% -0.81% -0.06% LOSS
2022-03-10 09:25:00 $26.25 +0.23% -0.15% -0.90% -1.89% -2.74% +0.42% -0.11% +0.19% WIN
2022-03-09 09:25:00 $26.73 -0.34% -0.08% +0.04% -0.37% -3.33% +0.49% -0.60% +0.07% LOSS
2022-03-08 09:25:00 $27.95 +0.29% +0.50% +1.47% +1.36% +0.43% +1.63% - +0.46% WIN
2022-03-07 09:25:00 $27.28 -0.43% -0.06% -0.62% +0.59% +1.17% +1.82% -0.78% -0.11% LOSS
2022-03-03 09:25:00 $25.74 -0.19% -0.25% -0.02% +0.82% +0.70% +2.21% -0.52% -0.12% LOSS
2022-03-01 09:25:00 $24.56 -0.16% +0.04% +0.20% +0.24% +1.10% +1.24% -0.49% -0.33% LOSS
2022-02-24 09:25:00 $24.75 -0.32% -1.09% -1.74% -1.66% -3.72% -0.08% -0.40% -0.08% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 61.5% Baseline on DBC

The 61.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push DBC's performance to 75%+.

Optimize DBC Strategy →

Why Analyze DBC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for DBC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, DBC historically offers an average upside of +1.26% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 DBC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 61.5%, DBC shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show DBC performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.13%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.